读Geopolitical Alpha（十）——The Time

作者对COVID-19 pandemic做了长篇累牍的分析，不详细记录了，看作者的结论：

In 2020, monetary policy is a slave to the master of fiscal policy. Thetwo lines are moving in lockstep on Figure 8.12. In my view, this will notease up in 2021, as the incoming Biden administration would not want tousher in its government with a massive fiscal cliff. And if President Trumpwins, it is almost guaranteed – given his first term – that he will not turntowards austerity. As we discussed in previous chapters, this has nothingto do with policymaker preferences, but rather the sentiment amongmedian voters that the tenets of the Washington Consensus – namelyfiscal prudence – are no longer relevant.

The Buenos Aires Consensus paradigm will lead to a year or two oforgies in asset markets, with new highs likely to follow in early 2021.However, it can’t all just be milk and honey from here on out. I wouldexpect inflation to start rising faster than investors expect. While notnegative for equities in its early stages, the 2020s will eventually becomestagflationary.

重点的就是第一句话了，下图可以作为解释：

作者的预测也很直接：

I would expect inflation to start rising faster than investors expect. 

现在已经看到了。