读Geopolitical Alpha（六）——Politics

应用MVT到美国的实际情况，作者认为：

The American and British median voter spoke loudly in 2016. Asof 2020 in these countries, populist economic policies that diverge fromlaissez-faire orthodoxy are the median voter’s preferred policy setting.26Pro-market policies are therefore unlikely to emerge from either country.To put it into terms most investors will understand: I am not holding mybreath for Paul Ryan to return to politics.

所以，对比应对2009年的次贷危机的ARRA，2020的大流行应对CARES：

Not only is the size of CARES more than double that ofARRA – 11.2% of 2019 GDP – but it was passed with no votes in opposition. The Senate passed the bill with a 96–0 majority. The House passedit with a voice vote; in the process, the sole dissenter – RepresentativeThomas Massie of Kentucky – endured a modern version of tar-and-feathering from all corners, including President Trump.

所以作者说：

The episode illustrates how MVT allows for policy to deviate fromthe median voter in the short term, but not in the long term. TheAmerican voter is on a journey of a major ideological pendulum swing.But it is unclear whether this switch will spur global momentum in thesame direction. The US continues to stand out negatively on measures ofincome inequality and social mobility (Figure 4.5) as well as on measuresof “middle class as percent of population” (Figure 4.6).

作者想强调的是：

For investors, these metrics mean that even if the US sees a return ofPresident Trump for a second term, the era when Americans embracelaissez-faire policies relative to the rest of the world is over.

选民的基础不允许政治家再拥抱Globalization了 —— 而只会更加极化，更加民粹：

作者强调，这不可逆的左倾，比US-Sino Relationship等等，都重要：

The transition from the Washington to Buenos Aires Consensus willdominate markets over the next decade. This transition is more relevantthan the US-China geopolitical rivalry, risks to European integration,and technological change. All assets will be influenced by the deluge offiscal and monetary policy.

对投资的影响：

Such a leftward move will sound the death knell for the US equitymarket’s cyclical outperformance relative to the rest of the world. WithUS profit margins and valuations at historical highs, long-term investorsshould probably begin underweighting US assets on a multiyear horizon.The dollar has probably peaked in 2020 with a long-term decline ahead.This will especially be the case if the COVID-19 recession ends up beingbrutal but brief, as investors are starting to realize is the case. Once therecession is over, the immense amount of stimulus sloshing around theUS economy will likely flee to other equity markets as investors seekreturns in economies that are not printing their way to growth. WhileI would remain bullish on US equities in absolute terms, I’d use the“churn” of 2020 to reposition to European, Japanese, and EM equitieson a decade-long strategic asset allocation.

所以，难道大毛二毛之战，是有心者的有意为之？