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这期的标题是 -
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
内燃机之死
他曾经辉煌，但这个曾经改变世界的机器，末路已经隐约可见
“HUMAN inventiveness…has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.
“以人类的创造力...居然至今还未找到能够代替马匹推动车辆的方法”, 1893年12月，一家法国的报纸“小日报”遗憾的评论道。这是针对来年7月举办的从巴黎到鲁昂的非马拉车比赛，102位参赛车辆，通过蒸汽，汽油，电力，压缩空气和水力等等提供动力。最后只有21辆成功的完成了126公里（78英里）的比赛，收到群众热切的欢呼。内燃机是明显的赢家，在下个世纪他为工业提供动力，并改变了世界
The big end
But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead . In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.
华丽的谢幕
内燃机已时日无多。电池科技的迅速发展反倒让电动机受惠不少。1894年的巴黎没有一辆电动车驶出起跑线，部分原因就是因为每三十公里要有一个基站来换电池。现如今的电动车，通过锂电池续航表现要好太多。雪佛兰Blot可以跑383公里。特斯拉的粉丝最近通过一次充电，就把Model S开了超过1000公里。UBS银行表示，电动车的“总拥有成本”明年就可以和汽油车持平，尽管开发商依旧是亏损的状态。它非常乐观的预测，到2025年，电动车的销售占汽车销售的总体比例会从如今的1%涨到14%。其他人的预测相对保守，但也认为随车电池越来越廉价和高效，每千瓦时的成本已经从2010年的1000美金降到今天的130-200美金。监管方面现在也更加严格。上个月英国加入禁燃油汽车国家团体，表示到2050年前所有的新车必须实现零排放
The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.
从燃油与活塞到电池与电动机的过渡可能不会有多久。内燃机的第一声丧钟已经在世界范围内响起，随之而来的将会是许多让人乐意看到的影响
To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.
要看清前方有什么在等着我们，就要考虑内燃机是如何改变现代生活的。 富裕国家为了汽车而重建，大力投资建造公路网，城郊随之诞生，还有购物中心，和汽车餐厅。大概85%的美国工人用汽车来通勤。汽车制造业也是经济发展的推进器并扩大了中产阶级的队伍。无论是战后的美国或是其他地方都是这样。现在路上大概有10亿辆车，几乎全部是依靠化石燃料推进。尽管它们大多数都处在停止的状态，美国的汽车和卡车引擎依旧可以产生发电厂10倍的能量。内燃机是历史上当之无愧最为强大的动力机器
But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
但是电力化给整个汽车工业带来动荡。最好的品牌都是建立在他们的工程技术传承之上，尤其是德国。相对于现有的车辆，电动车要简单很多并且组件也少得多，它更像是架在轮子上的电脑。同时也意味着可以用更少的人来组装，以及更少的专业辅助系统。在那些不生产电动车工厂里， 工人担心他们可能会被裁掉。随着故障的减少，保养以及配件市场也会萎缩。当前的汽车制造商被遗留下来的老旧的工厂和过剩的劳动力所裹挟，新的参与者却没有这些负担。高端品牌也许可以凭借造型和操控依旧抢眼，但是低利润率的大众化汽车制造商都不得不靠成本控制来参与竞争
Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
我们假定，没错，人们想要拥有汽车。电力推进，伴随着打车服务以及自动驾驶技术，也许意味着拥有汽车会被“交通即服务”所取代，汽车只是在需要时提供出行服务。在最极端的设想下，整个汽车行业规模会缩水90%。 许多共享的无人驾驶电车可以让城市把停车场（也一些地方停车场可以占到24%的面积）改成新的住宅，人们可以住的更远，在上下班路上睡觉，城市郊区化的趋势一下子反了过来
Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.
即便抛开安全和自动驾驶不弹，电力推进在环保和健康方面的益处也是大大的。给汽车电池充电要比引擎燃油高效的多。根据美国国家资源保护委员会的说法，目前的电动车可以比汽油车减少54%的碳排放。这个数据随着电动车的更加高效以及电池组的更加环保会变得更高。本地的空气污染也会减轻。世界卫生组织表示室外空气污染是最大的环境健康杀手，每年导致370万人死亡。一项研究发现，汽车排放每年会导致53000名美国人死亡，而死于交通事故的却只有34000人
Autos and autocracies
And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
汽车与独裁
说到石油, 在美国大概三分之二的石油都消费在公路上。剩下的也有相当一部分被用于加工那些提炼汽油和柴油的副产品。石油产业对于需求何时见顶产生了分歧。荷兰皇家壳牌认为至少还有10年。在那之前前景将会取决于价格。因为没人想被甩在后面，地里留下一堆没用的石油。新的投资将会不足，尤其是那些采油成本高的地方，比如北极圈。相反的，那些产油国比如沙特，储备丰富并且开采成本低，将会因为时间压力而尽快开采。中东依旧重要，但比起以前已是一落千丈。虽说天然气市场依旧存在，好用来帮助电动车充电，不稳定的油价依旧会让那些指着碳氢化合物收入来应付国家支出的国家鸭梨山大。当需求下降时，调整的过程让人担忧，尤其是那些围绕着石油控制权来进行权力斗争的国家。在一些国家像是安哥拉和尼日利亚，石油已经成为一种诅咒。这种对于经济的打击说不定反倒是个大的利好。
Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.
同时，锂的价格开始攀升。碳酸锂的价格从2011年的4000美元一吨到现在超过1万4千美金，对于电动机需要的钴和稀土的需求也在猛增。锂不光被用来给车提供动力：电力公司想要巨型电池以便在电力需求不多的时候存储电力，然后在用电高峰期时释放。这会让锂存储量丰富的智利变成下一个沙特阿拉伯么？应该不太会，因为电动车并不直接消耗锂，车上旧的锂电池可以在电网里再次应用，然后回收
The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
内燃机已然辉煌，而且依旧可以统治航运和航空业几十年。但在陆地上，电动机很快就可以一更廉价和更环保的方式提供自由与便利。向电动车的过渡会使得当前发达国家发电量下降的趋势有所扭转，决策者也许需要帮助确保有足够的发电能力，尽管许多国家的监管并不完善。他们需要为公共充电站的建立，电池，稀土电机等其他“城市矿山”部件的回收等等推行新的政策和标准。他们也不得不应对旧工厂关闭所带来的失业问题
Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
正如内燃机汽车在20世纪所做的那样，21世纪的无人驾驶电动车将会以深远的且无法预料的方式推动世界的发展。但前路坎坷，还需谨慎。
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