Large samples are more precise than small samples.
Small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do.
小样本更容易产生极端的结果。最近在写毕业论文，做实验的一个要求就是样本量要尽可能大，否则说服力不强。
We are prone to exaggerate the consistency and coherence of what we see. ... System 1 runs ahead of the facts in constructing a rich image on the basis of scraps of evidence.
cause and chance: 我们往往拒绝相信生活中的大多数事件都是随机性的，而且喜欢强行给随机事件找规律。我有一个有趣的亲身经历。今年过生日的时候，我室友给我准备了一个生日惊喜。因为正值七夕，她骗我说她脱单了，我相信了，然后开始在记忆里搜寻一切跟她谈了男朋友相关的线索：她最近新染了头发；她还买了一条露肩长裙；她昨晚上去隔壁寝室呆了好久，或许就跟这个有关；她最近总是笑嘻嘻的，看上去心情很好。这一切实际上并没有什么关联，但是因为我相信她脱单了的事实，于是开始强行为此做出解释，就把这些毫不相干的事情联系到了一起。
The exaggerated faith in small samples is only one example of a more general illusion---we pay more attention to the content of messages than to information about their reliability, and as a result end up with a view of the world around us that is simpler and more coherent than the data justify. Jumping to conclusions is a safer sport in the world of our imagination than it is in reality.
看事情要注重其代表性，不要用小样本来解释整体。很多成功励志的故事都是犯了这个以偏概全的错误。成功需要一些运气，每个人所处的环境和拥有的资源都不同，所以不要轻易模仿他人。
ps.学到了一个语言点：have a hot hand 我们通常说的“手气好”
a continuous period of great success, luck, or fortune; a winning streak. (the free dictionary)
例句：I'm not usually any good at poker, but I had a hot hand last night.
Their forward seems to have a hot hand in the game tonight!
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