TED判断错误背后的心理
主旨总结
Cognitive bias came from heuristics we apply. If heuristics are often wrong, whey we use them? In most of our human history, we made decisions when having limited information and time. We believed or judged things according to past experience instead of logical analysis. We have inherited this way of thinking from our ancestors and still practice it. But in modern world where more complicated decisions need to be made, the first intuition is not always right.
词汇
Cognitive bias认知偏差
Loss aversion损失厌恶 Negative feelings toward loss is double the pleasure of gain.
Heuristics探视法 a method of problem solving by experiment especially trial and error.
conjunction fallacy合取谬误
When two events can occur separately or together, the conjunction, where they overlap, cannot be more likely than the likelihood of either of the two individual events. However, people forget this and ascribe a higher likelihood to combination events, erroneously associating quantity of events with quantity of probability.
Anchor effect锚定理论
TED为什么我们会忽视问题？
主旨总结
The author uses 2008 world financial crisis to question “why we see obvious problems and ignore them”. Head of Federal Reserve saw the possibility of a severe landing and market bubble. He sounded alarm but people ignored it. The economy collapsed and a huge of loss was incurred.
The conversation in US would be all smooth sailing ahead while he conversation in China would be taming risks of financial crisis. Some auto companies put safety first but others only recall cars after people die. Some grandparents prepare for their funeral but others don’t. What’s the difference?①The author said people who trust others around them will pick them up when they fall are more open to change, less afraid of dangers and more likely to take good risks. In America, there is a strong individualist culture. They just see and hear what they want. They are less likely to open to change and take risks. ②people who are more sensitive to risks and recognize the problems are those who are more likely to tolerate good risks and deal with bad ones. ③ the more you believe you have power over future, the more you are willing to act.
词汇
Federal reserve美联储
Grey rhino灰犀牛
Shoddy粗制烂造的
Eulogy悼词
Chisel雕刻，凿
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