原文载于The Washington Post杂志：https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2019/03/05/the-energy-202-oil-giant-makes-business-case-for-taking-climate-change-seriously/5c7db0c81b326b2d177d5fc7/?utm_term=.d06702be0669
The Energy 202: Oil giant makes business case for taking climate change seriously
By Steven Mufson
March 5 at 7:54 AM
| 原文 | 译文（机译+略改） |
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The chief economist of one of the world’s biggest oil companies is urging other companies to take climate change seriously — and sooner rather than later. If not, it might be bad for business. |
全球最大石油公司之一的首席经济学家正在敦促其他公司认真对待气候变化问题，而且越早越好。 否则，这可能对企业不利。 |
| That’s the warning from BP’s Spencer Dale, who made the rounds in Washington last week explaining the business case for finding a solution for the warming planet. “All the climate arguments are real, urgent and important,” Dale said in an interview with The Washington Post. |
这是英国石油公司(BP)首席执行官斯宾塞•戴尔(Spencer Dale)发出的警告。戴尔上周在华盛顿四处游说，解释为全球变暖寻找解决方案的商业理由。 "所有的气候争论都是真实的、紧急的、重要的，"戴尔在《华盛顿邮报》的采访中说。 |
| Despite working for one of the world’s biggest producers of fossil fuels, Dale said the longer the world waits to address rising emissions, the more “draconian” the changes in the global economy will have to be. | 尽管戴尔为世界上最大的化石燃料生产商之一工作，但戴尔说，解决排放增长问题的时间越久，全球经济变化就将会越“严峻”。 |
| “How do I run a business, how do I make a business plan if I know that the path I’m on is unstable?” Dale asked. For a multinational energy firm operating in dozens of countries, that could mean having to scrap assets, Dale said. |
如果我知道我所走的道路是不稳定的，我该如何经营企业，如何制定商业计划?”Dale问道。 Dale表示，对于一家在数十个国家开展业务的跨国能源公司来说，这可能意味着必须报废资产。 |
| The provocative economist spent more than a decade working for the Bank of England before joining the oil giant. At the end of February, Dale led the publication of BP’s annual energy outlook, which is widely anticipated among energy industry followers. | 这位颇具煽动力的经济学家在加入这家石油巨头之前，曾在英国央行(Bank of England)工作了10多年。2月底，戴尔领导出版了英国石油公司的年度能源展望，这在能源行业的追随者中受到广泛关注。 |
| At the center of the report’s most likely scenario for the future is the tension between the pressing need to slash carbon emissions and the growing demand for energy as the global population grows and seeks better livelihoods. The best way to deal with that, Dale said, is to boost the energy efficiency of buildings and other systems. |
该报告对未来最可能设想的中心是，随着全球人口数量的增长和对更加美好生活的追求，大量削减碳排放的需求与不断增长的能源需求之间存在紧张关系。 戴尔说，解决这个问题的最好办法是提高建筑物和其他系统的能源效率。 |
| Still, in all of BP’s scenarios, oil would still be widely used in 2040. The amount could vary from 80 million barrels a day to 130 million barrels a day — a huge gap. Yet even the low-end scenario would require trillions of dollars of investment just in petroleum over the next 20 years. | 尽管如此，在英国石油公司的所有设想中，石油在2040年仍将被广泛使用。其需求量可能从每天8000万桶到每天1.3亿桶不等，这是一个巨大的缺口。然而，即便是最低端的情况，也需要在未来20年仅在石油领域就投入数万亿美元。 |
| Indeed, history shows how hard it has been for societies to move from one form of power production to another, Dale said. Previous energy transitions have taken about four or five decades, he said. | 事实上，历史表明，社会从一种形式的能源生产转移到另一种形式是多么困难，戴尔说。他说，上一次的能源转型大约花了四五十年的时间。 |
| It took almost 45 years, for example, for oil to go from 1 percent of world energy in the late 1800s to 10 percent. It took natural gas more than half a century to catch on. Renewables will penetrate the global energy system faster than any fuel in history, Dale said, going from 1 percent to 10 percent in just 15 years. |
例如，石油占世界能源的比例从19世纪末的1%上升到10%，用了将近45年的时间。天然气用了半个多世纪才流行起来。 戴尔说，可再生能源将比历史上任何一种燃料更快地渗入全球能源系统，在短短15年内从1%增长到10%。 |
| But BP’s analysis suggests that is not fast enough to stem the growth of climate-warming emissions. Even though new renewable energy will satisfy about half of the new energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions are likely to increase by about 10 percent instead of falling sharply as needed to stem climate change. | 但英国石油的分析表明，这一速度不足以遏制气候变暖排放的增长。尽管新的可再生能源将满足大约一半的新能源需求，但二氧化碳排放量可能会增加约10%，而不是像遏制气候变化所需要的那样急剧下降。 |
| Overall, global energy demand probably will grow by around a third by 2040, slower than the previous 20 years but still enough to make it difficult to lower greenhouse gas emissions as needed. | 总体而言，到2040年，全球能源需求可能将增长约三分之一，增速低于此前20年，但仍足以使温室气体排放量难以按需降低。 |
| Around 80 percent of that increase in demand will come from the developing world, yet a substantial proportion — two-thirds — of the world’s population will still consume low amounts of energy 21 years from now. | 需求增长的80%左右将来自发展中国家，但21年后，世界人口中很大比例——三分之二——仍将消耗较低的能源。 |
| BP has said it wants the federal government to take action, having endorsed a $40-a-ton nationwide tax. But that doesn't mean the company always supports carbon taxes in practice. BP spent more than any other company last year to defeat a carbon-fee ballot initiative in the state of Washington that the company said was "poorly designed." The proposal ultimately fell short with voters in November. | 英国石油公司表示，希望联邦政府采取行动，并支持在全国范围内征收40美元一吨的石油税。但这并不意味着该公司在实践中总是支持征收碳排放税。英国石油公司去年在华盛顿州花费了比其他任何公司都多的钱来挫败一项碳排放税的投票提案，该公司称这项提案“设计得很糟糕”。这项提案最终未能在11月获得选民的支持。 |
- giant
① (ADJ) 巨大的；特大的；极其重要的 Something that is described as giant is much larger or more important than most others of its kind.
② (N-COUNT) 大公司；大企业；大国 Giant is often used to refer to any large, successful business organization or country. - case
① (N-COUNT) 特定情况;事例;实例 A particular case is a particular situation or incident, especially one that you are using as an individual example or instance of something.
② (N-COUNT) 病例;案例;问题 A case is a person or their particular problem that a doctor, social worker, or other professional is dealing with.
③ (N-COUNT) 境况;状况;情形 If you say that someone is a sad case or a hopeless case, you mean that they are in a sad situation or a hopeless situation.
④ (N-COUNT) 案件;案子 A case is a crime or mystery that the police are investigating.
⑤ (N-COUNT) (用以证明或反驳的)事实，根据，理由 The case for or against a plan or idea consists of the facts and reasons used to support it or oppose it.
⑥ (N-COUNT) 官司;诉讼;讼案 In law, a case is a trial or other legal inquiry. - economist
① (N-COUNT) 经济学家 An economist is a person who studies, teaches, or writes about economics. - urging
① (VERB) 敦促；力劝 If you urge someone to do something, you try hard to persuade them to do it.
② (VERB) 推；拉；催促 If you urge someone somewhere, you make them go there by touching them or talking to them.
③ (VERB) 竭力主张；强烈要求 If you urge a course of action, you strongly advise that it should be taken.
④ (N-COUNT) 强烈的欲望；冲动；迫切的要求 If you have an urge to do or have something, you have a strong wish to do or have it. - make the rounds
串门拜访；四处走动 - argument
① (N-VAR) 理由；论据；论点 An argument is a statement or set of statements that you use in order to try to convince people that your opinion about something is correct.
② (N-VAR) 讨论；辩论 An argument is a discussion or debate in which a number of people put forward different or opposing opinions.
③ (N-COUNT) 争论；争执；争吵 An argument is a conversation in which people disagree with each other angrily or noisily.
④ (N-UNCOUNT) 异议；质疑 If you accept something without argument, you do not question it or disagree with it. - urgent
① (ADJ-GRADED) 紧迫的；紧急的；紧要的 If something is urgent, it needs to be dealt with as soon as possible.
② (ADJ-GRADED) 急切的；极力主张的 If you speak in an urgent way, you show that you are anxious for people to notice something or to do something. - fossil
(N-COUNT) 化石 A fossil is the hard remains of a prehistoric animal or plant that are found inside a rock. - fuel
① (N-MASS) 燃料 Fuel is a substance such as coal, oil, or petrol that is burned to provide heat or power.
② (VERB) 刺激;使变得更糟;使加剧 To fuel a situation means to make it become worse or more intense. - address
① (N-COUNT) 住址；地址 Your address is the number of the house, flat, or apartment and the name of the street and the town where you live or work.
② (VERB) 寄往;寄给 If a letter, envelope, or parcel is addressed to you, your name and address have been written on it.
③ (N-COUNT) 网址 The address of a website is its location on the Internet.
④ (N-COUNT) （电子表格中某个单元格的）位置 The address of a cell on a computer spreadsheet refers to the particular row and column number where it is located, for example 'C2' or 'N63'.
⑤ (VERB) 向…作正式讲话;对…发表演说 If you address a group of people, you give a speech to them.
⑥ (VERB) 向…说话 If you address someone or address a remark to them, you say something to them.
⑦ (VERB) 称呼（某人）；给…冠以（某种称呼） If you address someone by a name or a title such as 'sir', ⑧ (VERB) 对付；处理；设法了解并解决 If you address a problem or task or if you address yourself to it, you try to understand it or deal with it. - emission
(N-VAR) 散发;释放;放射 An emission of something such as gas or radiation is the release of it into the atmosphere.
-draconian
(ADJ-GRADED) (法律、措施等)严厉的，残酷的 Draconian laws or measures are extremely harsh and severe. - unstable
① (ADJ-GRADED) 不稳定的；不可靠的；动荡的 You can describe something as unstable if it is likely to change suddenly, especially if this creates difficulty or danger.
② (ADJ-GRADED) 不牢固的；松脱的 Unstable objects are likely to move or fall.
③ (ADJ-GRADED) （情绪）不稳定的，波动的 If people are unstable, their emotions and behaviour keep changing because their minds are disturbed or upset. - multinational
① (ADJ) (公司)多国的，跨国经营的 A multinational company has branches or owns companies in many different countries.
② (ADJ) (军队、组织或团体)人员来自不同国家的，国际的 Multinational armies, organizations, or other groups involve people from several different countries.
③ (ADJ) (国家或地区)多民族的 Multinational countries or regions have a population that is made up of people of several different nationalities. - scrap
① (N-COUNT) 碎片;小块;一丁点儿 A scrap of something is a very small piece or amount of it.
② (N-PLURAL) 残羹剩饭;吃剩的东西 Scraps are pieces of unwanted food which are thrown away or given to animals.
③ (VERB) 除掉;取消;废弃 If you scrap something, you get rid of it or cancel it.
④ (ADJ) (金属、纸张)废弃的,报废的 Scrap metal or paper is no longer wanted for its original purpose, but may have some other use.
⑤ (N-UNCOUNT) (废旧机械或汽车的)废金属 Scrap is metal from old or damaged machinery or cars.
⑥ (N-COUNT) (尤指不激烈的)斗殴，吵架 You can refer to a fight or a quarrel as a scrap, especially if it is not very serious. - asset
① (N-COUNT) 有用的物（或人）；财富 Something or someone that is an asset is considered useful or helps a person or organization to be successful.
② (N-PLURAL) 资产；财产 The assets of a company or a person are all the things that they own. - provocative
① (ADJ-GRADED) 挑衅的；煽动的；激怒的；刺激的 If you describe something as provocative, you mean that it is intended to make people react angrily or argue against it.
② (ADJ-GRADED) 激发性欲的；挑逗的 If you describe someone's clothing or behaviour as provocative, you mean that it is intended to make someone feel sexual desire. - publication
① (N-UNCOUNT) 出版；发行 The publication of a book or magazine is the act of printing it and sending it to shops to be sold.
② (N-COUNT) 出版物；发行物 A publication is a book or magazine that has been published.
③ (N-UNCOUNT) 公布；发布 The publication of something such as information is the act of making it known to the public, for example by informing journalists or by publishing a government document. - annual
① (ADJ) 一年一次的；每年的 Annual events happen once every year.
② (ADJ) 年度的;全年的 Annual quantities or rates relate to a period of one year.
③ (N-COUNT) 年刊;年报;年鉴 An annual is a book or magazine that is published once a year.
④ (N-COUNT) 一年生植物 An annual is a plant that grows and dies within one year. - outlook
① (N-COUNT) 世界观；人生观；（对生活的）观点，看法 Your outlook is your general attitude towards life.
② (N-SING) 展望；前景；可能性 The outlook for something is what people think will happen in relation to it. - anticipate
① (VERB) 预期;预料;预计 If you anticipate an event, you realize in advance that it may happen and you are prepared for it.
② (VERB) 未待提出就回答（问题）；预先考虑并满足（请求、需要等） If you anticipate a question, request, or need, you do what is necessary or required before the question, request, or need occurs.
③ (VERB) 早于…做（或想、说）；先于…行动 If you anticipate something, you do it, think it, or say it before someone else does. - scenario
① (N-COUNT) 设想;可能发生的情况 If you talk about a likely or possible scenario, you are talking about the way in which a situation may develop.
② (N-COUNT) (电影的)剧情梗概 The scenario of a film is a piece of writing that gives an outline of the story. - tension
① (N-UNCOUNT) 紧张关系;紧张局势 Tension is the feeling that is produced in a situation when people are anxious and do not trust each other, and when there is a possibility of sudden violence or conflict.
② (N-UNCOUNT) 紧张;焦虑;焦急 Tension is a feeling of worry and anxiety which makes it difficult for you to relax.
③ (N-VAR) (势力、观点、影响之间的)冲突，分歧 If there is a tension between forces, arguments, or influences, there are differences between them that cause difficulties.
④ (N-UNCOUNT) 拉紧程度;拉力;张力 The tension in something such as a rope or wire is the extent to which it is stretched tight. - pressing
(ADJ-GRADED) 紧迫的；紧急的；急迫的 A pressing problem, need, or issue has to be dealt with immediately. - slash
① (VERB) 割破;在…上留下深长的切口 If you slash something, you make a long, deep cut in it.
② (VERB) 挥砍;劈 If you slash at a person or thing, you quickly hit at them with something such as a knife.
③ (VERB) 大量削减 To slash something such as costs or jobs means to reduce them by a large amount. - livelihoods
(N-VAR) 营生；生计 Your livelihood is the job or other source of income that gives you the money to buy the things you need. - barrel
① (N-COUNT) 桶 A barrel is a large, round container for liquids or food.
② (N-COUNT) （石油工业中）一桶的量（相当于159升） In the oil industry, a barrel is a unit of measurement equal to 159 litres.
③ (N-COUNT) 枪管 The barrel of a gun is the tube through which the bullet moves when the gun is fired.
④ (VERB) 飞奔；疾驶；高速行驶 If a vehicle or person is barreling in a particular direction, they are moving very quickly in that direction. - gap
① (N-COUNT) 缝隙；缺口；豁口；裂口 A gap is a space between two things or a hole in the middle of something solid.
② (N-COUNT) （时间上的）间断，间隔，间隙 A gap is a period of time when you are not busy or when you stop doing something that you normally do.
③ (N-COUNT) 漏洞；空白；缺口 If there is something missing from a situation that prevents it being complete or satisfactory, you can say that there is a gap .
④ (N-COUNT) 分歧；差距；隔阂 A gap between two groups of people, things, or sets of ideas is a big difference between them. - low-end
（adj）低档的，生产低档产品的; - trillion
(NUM) 万亿;兆 A trillion is a million million. - investment
‘① (N-UNCOUNT) 投资 Investment is the activity of investing money.
② (N-VAR) 投资金额;投资物 An investment is an amount of money that you invest, or the thing that you invest it in.
③ (N-COUNT) 有用的投资物;值得买的东西 If you describe something you buy as an investment, you mean that it will be useful, especially because it will help you to do a task more cheaply or efficiently.
④ (N-UNCOUNT) (时间、精力的)投入 Investment of time or effort is the spending of time or effort on something in order to make it a success. - petroleum
(N-UNCOUNT) 石油；原油 Petroleum is oil which is found under the surface of the earth or under the sea bed. Petrol and paraffin are obtained from petroleum. - previous
① (ADJ) 先前的；以前的；早先的 A previous event or thing is one that happened or existed before the one that you are talking about.
② (ADJ) 上一次的；上一个的 You refer to the period of time or the thing immediately before the one that you are talking about as the previous one. - transition
① (N-VAR) 转变;过渡;变革;变迁 Transition is the process in which something changes from one state to another.
② (VERB) (从某一状态或活动)转变，过渡(到另一状态或活动) If someone transitions from one state or activity to another, they move gradually from one to the other. - natural
① (ADJ-GRADED) 自然的;正常的;合乎常情的 If you say that it is natural for someone to act in a particular way or for something to happen in that way, you mean that it is reasonable in the circumstances.
② (ADJ) (行为)出于本性的，生来就有的 Natural behaviour is shared by all people or all animals of a particular type and has not been learned.
③ (ADJ) (能力或技能)天赋的，天生的 Someone with a natural ability or skill was born with that ability and did not have to learn it.
④ (N-COUNT) 天生的料子;天才 If you say that someone is a natural, you mean that they do something very well and very easily.
⑤ (ADJ-GRADED) 轻松自如的;不局促的;不做作的 If someone's behaviour is natural, they appear to be relaxed and are not trying to hide anything.
⑥ (ADJ) 非人为的;自然的;天然的 Natural things exist or occur in nature and are not made or caused by people.
⑦ (ADJ) (父母或子女)亲生的，有血缘关系的 Someone's natural parent is their biological father or mother, as opposed to an adult who is looking after them or has adopted them. Someone's natural child is their biological son or daughter, as opposed to a child they are looking after or have adopted. - catch on
① (PHRASAL VERB) 明白;认识到 If you catch on to something, you understand it, or realize that it is happening.
② (PHRASAL VERB) 时兴;流行 If something catches on, it becomes popular. - penetrate
① (VERB) 渗入；进入；穿过；穿透 If something or someone penetrates a physical object or an area, they succeed in getting into it or passing through it.
② (VERB) 进入；跻身 If someone penetrates an organization, a group, or a profession, they succeed in entering it although it is difficult to do so.
③ (VERB) 打入，渗透（敌人或竞争对手内部） If someone penetrates an enemy group or a rival organization, they succeed in joining it in order to get information or cause trouble.
④ (VERB) 进入，打入（市场或地区） If a company or country penetrates a market or area, they succeed in selling their products there.
⑤ (VERB) 了解；洞察；领悟 If you penetrate something that is difficult to understand, you succeed in understanding it. - stem
① (VERB) 起源于;来自;由…造成 If a condition or problem stems from something, it was caused originally by that thing.
② (VERB) 阻止;遏制;制止 If you stem something, you stop it spreading, increasing, or continuing.
③ (N-COUNT) (植物的)秆，茎，梗 The stem of a plant is the thin, upright part on which the flowers and leaves grow.
④ (N-COUNT) (酒杯的)颈，柄脚 The stem of a wine glass is the long thin part which connects the bowl to the base.
⑤ (N-COUNT) (烟斗)柄 The stem of a pipe is the long thin part through which smoke is sucked. - satisfy
① (VERB) 使满意;使满足;使高兴 If someone or something satisfies you, they give you enough of what you want or need to make you pleased or contented.
② (VERB) 使确信;使弄清楚;使信服 To satisfy someone that something is true or has been done properly means to convince them by giving them more information or by showing them what has been done.
③ (VERB) 符合，达到，满足(要求) If you satisfy the requirements for something, you are good enough or have the right qualities to fulfil these requirements. - overall
(ADJ/ADV) 总的；总体的；全面的 You use overall to indicate that you are talking about a situation in general or about the whole of something. - substantial
① (ADJ-GRADED) 大量的;相当程度的;重大的 Substantial means large in amount or degree.
② (ADJ-GRADED) (建筑物)大而坚固的，结实的，牢固的 A substantial building is large and strongly built. - proportion
① (N-COUNT) 部分 A proportion of a group or an amount is a part of it.
② (N-COUNT) 比例 The proportion of one kind of person or thing in a group is the number of people or things of that kind compared to the total number of people or things in the group. - consume
① (VERB) 吃;喝;饮用 If you consume something, you eat or drink it.
② (VERB) 消耗，耗费(燃料、能源或时间) To consume an amount of fuel, energy, or time means to use it up.
③ (VERB) (火)烧毁，吞没，吞噬 If a fire consumes a building, it completely destroys it.
④ (VERB) (使)沉溺，(使)沉迷，(使)充满(感情或思想) If a feeling or idea consumes you, it affects you very strongly indeed. - federal
① (ADJ-GRADED) 联邦的;联邦制的 A federal country or system of government is one in which the different states or provinces of the country have important powers to make their own laws and decisions.
② (ADJ-GRADED) 中央集权式的;集权式联邦制的 Some people use federal to describe a system of government which they disapprove of, in which the different states or provinces are controlled by a strong central government.
③ (ADJ) 归属联邦政府的;与联邦政府有关的 Federal also means belonging or relating to the national government of a federal country rather than to one of the states within it. - endorsed
① (VERB) （公开地）赞同，支持 If you endorse someone or something, you say publicly that you support or approve of them.
② (V-PASSIVE) 在（驾驶执照）上注明违章 If someone's driving licence is endorsed, an official record is made on it that they have been found guilty of a driving offence.
③ (VERB) （在支票背面）签名，背书 When you endorse a cheque, you write your name on the back of it so that it can be paid into someone's bank account.
④ (VERB) 为…做广告宣传 If you endorse a product or company, you appear in advertisements for it. - defeat
① (VERB) 击败;战胜 If you defeat someone, you win a victory over them in a battle, game, or contest.
② (VERB) 否决(提案或动议) If a proposal or motion in a debate is defeated, more people vote against it than for it.
③ (VERB) (任务或问题)难住，难倒 If a task or a problem defeats you, it is so difficult that you cannot do it or solve it.
④ (VERB) 挫败(行动或计划);使落空 To defeat an action or plan means to cause it to fail.
⑤ (N-VAR) 战败;失利;失败 Defeat is the experience of being beaten in a battle, game, or contest, or of failing to achieve what you wanted to. - ballot
① (N-COUNT) 无记名投票；无记名选举；无记名表决 A ballot is a secret vote in which people select a candidate in an election, or express their opinion about something.
② (N-COUNT) （无记名）选票 A ballot is a piece of paper on which you indicate your choice or opinion in a secret vote.
③ (VERB) 在…中间进行无记名投票（或表决） If you ballot a group of people, you find out what they think about a subject by organizing a secret vote. - initiative
① (N-COUNT) 积极的行动;倡议 An initiative is an important act or statement that is intended to solve a problem.
② (N-SING) 主动权 In a fight or contest, if you have the initiative, you are in a better position than your opponents to decide what to do next.
③ (N-UNCOUNT) 主动性;积极性;进取心 If you have initiative, you have the ability to decide what to do next and to do it, without needing other people to tell you what to do.
④ (PHRASE) 采取主动;首先采取行动 If you take the initiative in a situation, you are the first person to act, and are therefore able to control the situation. - proposal
① (N-COUNT) 提议；建议；提案 A proposal is a plan or an idea, often a formal or written one, which is suggested for people to think about and decide upon.
② (N-COUNT) 求婚 A proposal is the act of asking someone to marry you. - ultimately
① (ADV) 最终；最后；终于 Ultimately means finally, after a long and often complicated series of events.
② (ADV) 根本上；归根结底 You use ultimately to indicate that what you are saying is the most important point in a discussion. - fall short
缺乏; 不足; 达不到（目标）; 不符合 - voter
(N-COUNT) 选民;投票人;选举人 Voters are people who have the legal right to vote in elections, or people who are voting in a particular election.
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