前些天看到瑞达利欧公众号更新的每日原则里，推送的是关于精确性的看法。原文如下：
Understand the concept of “by-and-large” and use approximations. Because our educational system is hung up on precision, the art of being good at approximations is insufficiently valued. This impedes conceptual thinking. For example, when asked to multiply 38 by 12, most people do it the slow and hard way rather than simply rounding 38 up to 40, rounding 12 down to 10, and quickly determining that the answer is about 400. Look at the ice cream shop example and imagine the value of quickly seeing the approximate relationships between the dots versus taking the time to see all the edges precisely. It would be silly to spend time doing that, yet that’s exactly what most people do. “By-and-large” is the level that you need to understand most things in order to make effective decisions. Whenever a big-picture “by-and-large” statement is made and someone replies “Not always,” my instinctual reaction is that we are probably about to dive into the weeds—i.e., into a discussion of the exceptions rather than the rule, and in the process we will lose sight of the rule. To help people at Bridgewater avoid this time waster, one of our just-out-of-college associates coined a saying I often repeat: “When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that it’s not totally true, it’s probably by-and-large true.”
大概意思是说：
我们应该理解“大概”这一概念，并学会使用“粗略估算”的方法。我们大家所受到的教育，都是要求我们“精确”计算，而不鼓励近似的、粗略的估算。这极大的影响了“概念化”思维的建立。
比如，我们现在要计算38×14，绝大多数人都会缓慢而费力的去求得“精确”的答案，却不懂得将38、14四舍五入成：40、10，从而快速的得到答案接近400，影响到了我们的做事效率。
再想想之前提到的“冰淇淋连锁店”的例子（见瑞之前的文章），与其费力的去搞清楚每个点的关联，不如快速的找出它们大致的关系。我们中的大多数人都是在浪费时间、精力去找寻“精确的”答案。
“大概”是我们为了决策的效率，而必须掌握并达到的能力“水平”。当一个“大概”的陈述被“并不总是如此”挑战时，我就会想到：我们很可能会陷入讨论“例外”的讨论，而忽略了“常规”的事实了。
为了让“桥水”（瑞创办的现已为全球最大的对冲基金）的员工避免出现这种情况，而浪费大量的时间。我时常重复说我从一位在我们公司任助理的大学实习生那里听回来的一句话：“当你问某人某事是否为‘真’时，那人回答‘并不总是’。那么，你就认为那事‘大概’就是真的了。”
虽然，我觉瑞所说并不全部正确。但是，利用“大概”、“粗略估计”来做事情的决策、判断，确实是我们提高效率，避免浪费时间的有效方法。
并且，这还可以运用到我们生活、学习等方面。比如阅读，我最近就喜欢用跳读、略读、简读等快速阅读的方法，只要把自己对于书中感兴趣的部分，或者对自己“有用”的部分看到了、学到了、掌握了，就行了，也就是所谓“观其大略”。同样的时间，阅读量提升了不少，也让有限的时间得到了更好的利用。
其他还有很多场景，可以运用到“大概”、“粗略估算”的方法。你想到了哪些？
（日更写作【500字】60/365）
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