Part four, chapter five the border between active and passive.
第四部分,第五章主动与被动的边界。
We previously mentioned the following.
我们之前提到了以下几点。
This is the secret of investment, have a 100% objective understanding of the objective world and a 100% objective understanding of oneself.
这就是投资的秘诀,对客观世界有100%的客观认识,对自己也有100%的客观认识。
This is to say that successful investors must have an objective understanding of themselves and reality.
这就是说,成功的投资者必须对自己和现实有客观的认识。
Actually, there's a hidden and even more important area that they must objectively understand the border between themselves and reality.
事实上,他们必须客观地认识自己和现实之间的边界,这是一个隐藏的、甚至更重要的领域。
Our body is not the border between ourselves and reality because we are able to actively cause change in areas outside of our body.
我们的身体不是我们自己和现实的边界,因为我们能够在身体之外的区域主动引起变化。
We can make extensions to our body. For instance, we can extend our legs using transportation tools like bicycles and cars.
我们可以对身体进行延伸,例如,我们可以使用像自行车和汽车这样的交通工具来伸展我们的腿。
And we can extend their brains using Internet devices. Actually, once we were sufficiently proficient with any tool, it effectively becomes a part of our body. Clearly we can influence the world outside of her body.
而且我们可以利用互联网设备延伸他们的大脑,事实上,一旦我们足够精通任何工具,它有效地成为我们身体的一部分。显然我们可以影响她体外的世界。
For instance, we can use our trust and respect to gain the trust and respect of another. As parents we can use our behaviour to become a model for our children.
例如,我们可以用我们的信任和尊重来获得别人的信任和尊重。作为父母,我们可以用自己的行为成为孩子们的榜样。
And as an investor, we can hold assets over the long term to achieve excellent long term returns.
而作为一个投资者,我们可以长期持有资产,以获得优秀的长期回报。
However, there is a border which encompasses the area of reality that we can influence through our behavior.
然而,有一个边界,它包含了我们可以通过我们的行为来影响的现实领域。
Within this border, we can constantly advance through hard work.
在这个边界内,我们可以通过努力不断前进。
Outside of this border, there's nothing we can do.
在这个边境之外,我们无能为力。
If an individual is unable to clearly recognize the existence of this border, they will always live a life of chaos and pain.
如果个人无法清楚地认识到这个边界的存在,他们将永远过着混乱和痛苦的生活。
The clearest example of this is parents raising children.
这方面最明显的例子就是父母养育孩子。
If parents focus their efforts on improving themselves than they are within their own border, which is good.
如果父母把精力放在提高自己上,而不是放在自己的边界之内,这是好的。
But in most situations, we find that parents focus their efforts outside their own border, where they actually can do nothing. Children are not stupid, actually, their brains have a radar like ability to see whether or not their parents follow their own advice. If their parents actions don't match up with their words, the child will find it quite painful, especially since they still don't have a clear understanding of their own border. Their parents are constantly invading their border and they don't have the ability to defend themselves.
但在大多数情况下,我们发现父母把精力集中在自己的国界之外,在那里他们实际上无能为力。孩子不傻。事实上,他们的大脑有一种雷达一样的能力,可以看到他们的父母是否听从他们自己的建议。如果他们的父母行为与他们的言行不符,孩子会觉得相当痛苦,尤其是他们对自己的边界还没有清晰的认识。他们的父母不断入侵他们的边境,而且他们没有自卫的能力。
This is the source of most negative reactions in children.
这是孩子最消极反应的来源。
The child feels pain, and the parent feels even more pain precisely because they are exerting effort in an area that they can't control. They keep failing and trying again with increasingly worse results until both sides are exhausted.
孩子感到疼痛,而父母之所以感到更痛苦,正是因为他们在一个他们无法控制的领域付出了努力,他们不断地失败和再次尝试,结果越来越糟糕,直到双方都筋疲力尽。
Of course, a more common example occurs in the investing world. Do investors really need to participate in operations? Maybe sometimes, but we can be almost certain that traders in the secondary market should not participate in the operations of the companies they invest in. In fact, not needing to participate in operations is one of the biggest advantages of investing in the secondary markets.
当然,更常见的例子发生在投资界。投资者真的需要参与操作吗?也许有时候,但我们几乎可以肯定,二级市场的交易者不应该参与他们投资的公司的运作。事实上,无需参与操作,是投资二级市场的最大优势之一。
However, the operators of almost every publicly traded company received many letters from shareholders every day.
然而,几乎每一家上市公司的经营者每天都会收到很多股东的来信。
These shareholders have all sorts of complaints and advice, and they often end up working themselves into a tizzy.
这些股东有各种各样的抱怨和建议,而且他们经常会把自己弄得头昏脑胀。
Therein, cognizant of the fact that they are wasting effort outside of their own border.
其中,认识到他们正在自己的国界之外浪费努力的事实。
They have no idea that effort outside of that border is completely useless and that if it has any effect at all, it will be negative.
他们根本不知道在那个边界之外的努力是完全没有用的,如果它有任何效果的话,会是负面的。
They will never understand because they themselves lack the ability to create an effective business model and eventually secure investment from the public.
他们永远不会明白,因为他们自己缺乏创造有效商业模式并最终获得公众投资的能力。
If they were able to do so, they would discover that its terrible to have so many people on the outside trying to influence you, that it's even worse to be swayed by those on the outside. You can even say that following a company that is easily swayed by the secondary market is not worth investing in.
如果他们能做到,他们会发现,外面有那么多人试图影响你是很可怕的,被外面的人左右更可怕。你甚至可以这样说,容易被二级市场左右的公司不值得投资。
Let's take another look at the equation that describes the returns.
我们再来看看描述收益的等式。
Pig equals delta plus alpha minus gamma. The peak performance on the left side of the equation represents our final returns.
pig等于delta加α减γ,等式左边的峰值表现代表我们最终的收益。
On the right side, delta is an investment that matches the returns of the market with a beta of one.
在右边。Delta是一种与市场回报相匹配的投资,测试版为1。
For regular investors, alpha depends on our careful choices before we start investing.
对于普通投资者来说,阿尔法取决于我们在开始投资之前的谨慎选择。
Finally, gamma represents gains that were lost due to mistakes.
最后,伽马代表由于错误而失去的收益。
We have shown several times that as long as you don't do anything, you won't make mistakes, so gamma should be zero and performance should be maximized.
我们已经证明了好几次,只要你什么都不做,你不会犯错,所以伽马应该为零,性能应该最大化。
Unfortunately, you will always have the impulse to do something to change things and make them better.
不幸的是,你永远都会有做一些事情来改变事情,让事情变得更好的冲动。
There's no way around it because you're human and our brains are designed to survive in dangerous environments for tens of thousands of years. Do something when you encounter danger was the best strategy, and those who chose to do nothing in the face of danger died out long ago. Our brains are still the same today, only able to understand immediate danger and unable to understand the future gains.
没办法绕过去,因为你是人类而我们的大脑被设计在危险的环境中生存了几万年。在遇到危险的时候做点什么是最好的策略,而那些在危险面前选择无所作为的人早就灭绝了。我们的大脑今天还是老样子,只能了解眼前的危险,无法了解未来的收获。
It's just like we mentioned in chapter three of part four, even in the face of more than 200 years of data show an otherwise, people still think that cash is truly safe investment.
就像我们在第四部分第三章提到的,即使面对200多年的数据显示,否则,人们仍然认为现金才是真正安全的投资。
But if you invest in an index fund or an s and P 500 fund and anything you do influences, you can't change the direction or speed of the development of the world. You also can't change the direction or speed of the development of a country, region or industry.
但是如果你投资于指数基金或者标准普尔500指数基金,你所做的任何事情都会影响,你无法改变世界发展的方向或速度。你也不能改变一个国家发展的方向或速度,地区或行业。
And even if you hold stock in a company, you're unlikely to be able to change it.
而且即使你持有一家公司的股票,你不太可能改变它。
Actually, aside from changing yourself, there's not much you can change. The sooner you realize this, the better.
事实上,除了改变自己,你能改变的不多。你越早意识到这一点越好。
Most funds are established to chase alpha. Even though there are some successful examples, they are extremely rare and we can't eliminate the possibility that they were just lucky. Even Warren buffet has clearly been lucky.
大多数基金都是为了追逐阿尔法而建立的,尽管有一些成功的例子,它们极其罕见,我们无法排除它们只是运气好的可能性,就连沃伦·巴菲特显然也一直很幸运。
Was born in the U.S. In addition to the us having been the fastest growing area in the world over the past 55 years.
出生在美国。S.除了美国,过去55年一直是全球增长最快的地区。
It has also had a stable legal environment in which private property has been relatively protected.
也有了私有财产得到相对保护的稳定法制环境。
If Warren Buffett had been born in South Korea, which has the highest rate of presidents and tycoons going to jail. How would he have done?
如果沃伦·巴菲特出生在韩国,其中总统和大亨入狱率最高。他会怎么做?
How difficult is it to create alpha?
创建alpha有多难?
Someone once joked that if you through stock certificates in a room, let a monkey into the room and made a fund based on which stocks the monkey peed on, you can still make the fund managers of most actively managed funds. Sadly, the joke is correct.
有人曾经开玩笑说,如果你在一个房间里通过股票证书,让一只猴子进入房间,根据猴子尿在哪些股票上做基金。还是可以做大部分主动管理型基金的基金经理。可悲的是,这个笑话是正确的。
According to a report in the wall street journal, in the 15 years ending in 2016, 95.4% of mid cap funds underperformed the s and P midcap 400.
据《华尔街日报》报道,在截至2016年的15年里,95.4%的中型股基金表现逊于标准普尔中型股400指数。
93.2% of small cap funds underperformed the s and P smallcap 692.2% of large cap funds underperformed s and P 500.
93.2%的小盘基金表现逊于标普500指数和小盘基金,692.2%的大盘基金表现逊于标普500指数。
Across the world in recent years. More money has been flowing into passively managed funds and relatively less has been invested in actively managed funds.
纵观全球,近年来,更多的资金一直流入被动管理型基金,投入主动管理型基金的相对较少。
It is said that money is smart and it flows to where it can grow.
都说钱是聪明的,流到哪里就能长到哪里。
Another example is how it flows from the hands of those who love to spend to those who choose to invest in.
再如,它是如何从爱花钱的人手中流向选择投资的人手中的。
American theologian Reinhold Niebuhr, serenity prayer is in fact a deep meditation on these boundaries.
美国神学家赖因霍尔德·尼布尔、宁静祈祷事实上是一个深冥想对这些边界。
Its most common form is as follows.
其最常见的形式如下。
Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can.
赐予我平静接受我无法改变的事物,勇气去改变我能改变的事情。
Wisdom to know the difference.
明辨是非的智慧。
Where to supporters, a long term perspective and macro observation. Together, these three concepts can change a person's personality. My students and I have all felt this.
支持者,长远眼光和宏观观察。一起,这三个概念可以改变一个人的性格。
Where to supporters, a long term perspective and macro observation. Together, these three concepts can change a person's personality. My students and I have all felt this.
支持者,长远眼光和宏观观察。一起,这三个概念可以改变一个人的性格。我和我的学生都感受到了这一点。
People say that personality can decide one's fate, but I tend to believe that personality is not innate, and that personality is only an overall expression of the interplay between the black horse, the horse and the driver at different times at different stages of development.
人们说个性可以决定一个人的命运,但我倾向于认为个性并不是与生俱来的,个性只是黑色的马之间相互作用的整体表现,马和车手在不同的发展阶段不同的时间。
For example, deep thinking about these three concepts has made it very difficult for me to become angry.
例如,对这三个概念的深入思考,让我变得很难生气。
There is nothing that is worth getting as angry as I used to get when I was younger. I have started to ponder the following phenomenon.
没有什么比我年轻时更值得生气的了。我已经开始琢磨下面这个现象了。
Why are some people able to succeed in even the harshest environments?
为什么有些人即使在最恶劣的环境下也能成功?
It was to be a regular investor, and my eventual ability to explain regular investing in detail all started from asking myself this question.
就是成为一个固定的投资者,而我最终能够详细解释定期投资都是从问自己这个问题开始的。
Looking at things from a long term perspective can lead you to the opposite of your previous conclusions.
从长远的角度看待事物,可能会导致你得出与之前结论相反的结论。
Observe Asians can lead you to choices that will produce better results over the long.
观察亚洲人可以引导你做出选择,从长远来看会产生更好的结果。
Awareness of borders. It can help you avoid trouble and wasted efforts.
以及对边界的意识。它可以帮助你避免麻烦和白费力气。
I have no need to complain about a poor environment.
我没有必要抱怨环境恶劣。
And I don't want to complain about how society is unfair.
我也不想抱怨社会如何不公平。
Unfairness in society is like the markets.
社会的不公平就像市场。
As long as you look at it from a long term perspective, it is pretty fair. But if you look at it minute by minute.
只要你从长远的角度来看,这很公平。但如果你一分一秒地看。
It's always unfair.
总是不公平的。
Importantly, I am increasingly able to accept, always being underestimated.
重要的是,我越来越能接受,总是被低估。
The stock market will only be very briefly overvalued.
股市只会被非常短暂地高估。
That's probably right.
这大概是对的。
Objectivity is very important.
客观性很重要。
Not only objectivity about the world, but objectivity about yourself and careful objectivity about the border of yourself.
不仅是对世界的客观性,而是对自己的客观性和对自己边界的仔细客观性。
It's even more important to be objective over the long term.
更重要的是要长期客观。
It's an open secret.
这是公开的秘密。
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