托福阅读推断题是许多考生的心头恨，经过多年的考题分析和实战检验。阿伦老师想告诉各位同学托福阅读推断题可以按部就班，迎刃而解。托福的阅读文章的逻辑结构，文章主体段部分往往是按照中心句(Topic Sentence)+细节支撑(Supporting details)展开的。同时作者在进行写作的过程中一定有按照一定的逻辑顺序进行行文的展开。推断题的奥妙是在于考生们要按照文章的逻辑顺序，顺着逻辑方向或逆着逻辑方向进行解题。
我们先来看看ETS对于推断题的考察能力是什么：检查考生对文章中强烈建议但绝不明说观点(strongly implied but not explicitly stated in the text)的理解程度。
在托福的官方指南OG中有这样的描述：
What is INFERENCE:
An inference is making a logical guess based on the available information to help draw a conclusion.
在托福的官方指南OG中有这样的描述：
What could we INFER?:
We have enough information to conclude that it has been raining outside. 在托福考试中这就是一个有逻辑性的假设(logical assumption)
What could we NOT INFER?
Your friend has the keys to his car in his hand and he’s going out the door. Where is he going?因为信息不足，这就不可能是托福推断题(this would NOT be a TOEFL question)。
在题干中出现如下表述：It is likely that …/ It is possible that …/ It can be inferred that …
或是题干中有出现infer, imply, indicate或suggest这四个单词，基本就能判定这个题目为推断题。那么推断题应该如何解答呢?
推断题重要做题步骤：
第一步：判断题型。推断题的做题要点就是文章有强烈暗示点，需要通过阅读上下文进行合理的推断。
第二部：审题清晰，定位原文。在阅读题干过程中，圈划关键词，推断文章的段落或者具体位置，带着题干中的关键信息到原文中精准定位。
第三部：推理判断。根据原文关键信息的上下文的相关句正向或逆向进行推理，选出最优答案。
正向推理：与事实信息题相同的做题方法，答案就是关键句的同义改写；
逆向推理：通常分为两种，一种是时间逆向，另一种是两类事物的对比。
三篇TPO中的托福阅读推断题的举例：
[TPO 53 Passage 01] Which of the following can be inferred from paragraph 3 about the difference between earlier tokens and later tokens?
[TPO 51 Passage 02] .It can be inferred from paragraph 2 that Earth evolved differently than Venus did in part because
[TPO 44 Passage 03] It can be inferred from paragraph 4 that the reason seagrasses do not grow in very deep water is that
我们以TPO 51 - Population Growth In Nineteenth-Century Europe作为例子：
第11题：
这道题的关键是找出原文第六段中哪处提及了underground sewers (下水道)或者与之相近的信息？
Paragraph 6:
The greater reliability of food supplies was a factor in the decline of urban death rates. Even more important were the gains in urban sanitation, as well as measures such as inspection of housing.Reformers, including enlightened doctors, began to study the causes of high death rates and to urge remediation. Even before the discovery of germs, beliefs that disease spread by 'miasmas' (noxious forms of bad air) prompted attention to sewers and open garbage; Edwin Chadwick led an exemplary urban crusade for underground sewers in England in the 1830s. Gradually, public health provisions began to cut into customary urban mortality rates. By 1900, in some parts of Western Europe life expectancy in the cities began to surpass that of the rural areas. Industrial societies had figured out ways to combine large and growing cities with population growth, a development that would soon spread to other parts of the world.
段落高光部分的意思是：即使在细菌被发现之前，人们也已经意识到下水道的清洁和垃圾清理很重要，而查德威克还在英国引领了模范性的城市运动，要求对城市下水道进行改革。
从第六段的整体来看，我们能够了解到“underground sewers”是城市卫生设施提升 (gains in urban sanitation) 的一个重要方面，它能降低疾病发病率， 从而减少城市死亡率(the decline of urban death rates)。
因此这道题是一道正向推理题，我们可以推理得出B选项：They helped reduce deaths caused by disease in cities.
再来看看错误选项：
选项A: They became common in most of Western Europe in the 1830s. 而原文提到：Edwin Chadwick led an exemplary urban crusade for underground sewers in England in the 1830s.意思是：19世纪30年代，查德威克在英国引领了一次模范性的城市运动，要求对城市下水道进行改革。但并未提及变得more common还是less common.
选项C: They led to the discovery that disease could be caused by germs. 而原文提到：Even before the discovery of germs, beliefs that disease spread by 'miasmas' (noxious forms of bad air) prompted attention to sewers and open garbage; 意思是：甚至是在发现细菌之前，人们就相信疾病是由“瘴气”（有害的坏空气）传播的，所以需要注意下水道清洁和露天垃圾的清理。但并未提及人们发现这类疾病由细菌导致这个因果关系。
选项D: They encouraged people to leave rural areas and move to the cities. 原文提到：By 1900, in some parts of Western Europe life expectancy in the cities began to surpass that of the rural areas. 意思是：到1900年，在西欧的一些地区，城市人口的预期寿命开始超过农村地区。但并未提及人们要从农村地区搬向城市。
我们再以TPO 20 - Westward Migration 作为例子，进行细节讲解：
Paragraph 1:
The story of the westward movement of population in the United States is, in the main, the story of the expansion of American agriculture—of the development of new areas for the raising of livestock and the cultivation of wheat, corn, tobacco, and cotton. After 1815 improved transportation enabled more and more western farmers to escape a self-sufficient way of life and enter a national market economy. During periods when commodity prices were high, the rate of westward migration increased spectacularly. 'Old America seemed to be breaking up and moving westward,' observed an English visitor in 1817, during the first great wave of migration. Emigration to the West reached a peak in the 1830's. Whereas in 1810 only a seventh of the American people lived west of the Appalachian Mountains, by 1840 more than a third lived there.
段落高光部分的意思是：1815年之后，交通的改善使得更多农民不再自给自足，进入全国范围内的市场经济。也就是说1815年之前(prior to 1815)是自给自足不参与市场经济的。这也就是选项D: They did not operate in a national market economy.
再来看看错误选项：
选项A: They had limited their crop production to wheat, corn, tobacco, and cotton. 原文第一段并未提及限制小麦、玉米、烟草和棉花，只提及了西进运动(westward movement of population)是一场开辟用于饲养家畜以及种植小麦、玉米、烟草和棉花的新土地的运动(the development of new areas)。
选项B: They were able to sell their produce at high prices. 原文第一段，提及了 During periods when commodity prices were high, the rate of westward migration increased spectacularly. 意思是进入了国家市场经济。在商品价格较高的那些年，西迁的比率飞速增长。但是并未提及要以较高价格销售商品。
选项C: They had not been successful in raising cattle. 原文第一段：the story of the expansion of American agriculture—of the development of new areas for the raising of livestock and the cultivation of wheat, corn, tobacco, and cotton 美国西进运动的故事是美国农业扩张的故事，也就是一场开辟用于饲养家畜以及种植小麦、玉米、烟草和棉花的新土地的运动。此处并未提及饲养家畜的成功与否。
在完成推断题中，对于考生们扫读(Scanning Skill)的能力的要求非常高，所以大家需要了解信号词(Signal Words)在理解这些信息的过程中扮演一个重要的角色。在下一期的阅读解析课中，阿伦老师会继续给大家带来托福阅读中的信号词阅读技巧！请大家继续关注教书匠阿伦。
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