特朗普经济学

WhyTrumponomicswon’t make America great again

The impulsiveness and shallowness of America’s president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law

笔记：本文的题眼是Trumponomics， 是由Trump和ecomomics组成的一个新词，意思是“特朗普经济学”。此前国际社会非常热门的一个词是Abenomics，也就是以日本首相安倍晋三命名的“安倍经济学”。因此同理可以得出“特朗普经济学”。

标题的意思是“为什么特朗普经济学不能使美国再次伟大”。接下去的这句话做了进一步的解释，意即美国总统的冲动与肤浅将会威胁经济发展，还会影响到法治。

词汇：

*impulsiveness: noun  the trait of acting suddenly on impulse without reflection (名词，容易冲动）

*shallowness: noun   1.  lack of depth of knowledge or thought or feeling     Synonym:    superficiality         2.  the quality of lacking physical depth   e.g.  take into account the shallowness at that end of the pool before you dive (名词，意为 肤浅、浅薄）

May 13th 2017

DONALD TRUMP rules over Washington as if he were a king and the White House his court.His displays of dominance, his need to be the centerof attention and his impetuousness have a whiff of Henry VIII about them.Fortified by his belief that his extraordinary route to power is proof of the collective mediocrity of Congress, the bureaucracy and the media,he attacks any person and any idea standing in his way.

首句是这一小节的主旨句，as if从句使用虚拟语气，指当说话人认为句子所述的是不真实的或极少有可能发生或存在的情况。在句中也就是假设特朗普是一个国王，白宫是他的宫庭。当然这个是并不真实的一个情况。“...and white house (were) his court”，省略了were.

Displays of dominance还原成正常的表示就是dominant displays。Of的作用就是把形容词的dominant后置，用名词形式，修饰之前的displays.

后面两个长句是对主旨句的论据。第一句说的是他的个性有一种亨利八世的感觉，承接上面的虚拟语气“他仿佛是国王”。第二句说的是特朗普的竞选之路让他藐视平庸的国会、官僚和媒体，他可以任意攻击阻挠他、反对他的人或观点。

词汇：

*display: something intended to communicate a particular impression   e.g.  made a display of strength  a show of impatience  a good show of looking interested     Synonym:    show  (做名词使用，展示、炫耀）

*the center of attention：关注的焦点、注意的中心。

*impetuousness: noun  rash impulsiveness     Synonym:  impetuosity  (名词：浮躁、鲁莽）

*whiff: N-COUNT一阵(气味) If there is a whiff of a particular smell, you smell it only slightly or only for a brief period of time, for example as you walk past someone or something. He caught a whiff of her perfume.他闻到了她身上的一股香水味。

N-COUNT轻微的征兆;迹象A whiff of something bad or harmful is a slight sign of it.Not a whiff of scandal has ever tainted his private life...他的私生活没有爆出过一丁点儿的丑闻。

*fortified adj.加强的v.筑防御工事；增强；强化If you are fortified by something such as food, drink, or an idea, it makes you feel more cheerful, determined, or energetic

*mediocrityN-UNCOUNT平庸;平凡;普通If you refer to the mediocrity of something, you mean that it is of average quality but you think it should be better.

这句话集体平庸修饰的是三个名词：国会、官僚和媒体。

*stand in the wayvi.阻挠;碍事，挡道

试译：唐纳德·特朗普统治着华盛顿，仿佛他是国王而白宫是他的宫庭。他炫耀自己的主导地位、他渴望成为众人关注的焦点以及他的鲁莽浮躁都带着一丝亨利八世的味道。他坚信自己非凡的权力之路证明了国会、官僚和媒体的集体平庸，他攻击任何阻碍他的人或观点。

Just how much trouble that can cause was on sensational display this week, with hissacking ofJames Comey—only the second director of the FBI to have beenkicked out.Mr Comey has made mistakes and Mr Trump was within his rights.Butthe president has succeeded only in drawing attention to questions about his links to Russia and his contempt for the norms designed to hold would-be kings in check.

本段用了一个例子说明了特朗普的个性引出的麻烦，那就是本周的轰动事件，特朗普解雇了FBI的局长詹姆斯·科米。第二句说的是科米有错，特朗普解雇他也是在总统权限之内的行为。“But”是个转折词，起到了启下的作用，特朗普所做的也只是成功引起了关注。

词汇：

*sensational.ADJA sensational result, event, or situation is so remarkable that it causes great excitement and interest.戏剧性的;轰动性的

* sack:N-COUNT A sack is a large bag made of thick paper or rough material. Sacks are used to carry or store things such as food or groceries.大麻袋;大厚纸袋

例：...a sack of potatoes.…一大袋土豆。

2. N-COUNT a tackle on a quarterback which brings him down before he has passed the ball擒杀四分卫[American football]

3. V-T If your employers sack you, they tell you that you can no longer work for them because you have done something that they did not like or because your work was not good enough.开除[英国英语] [非正式]If he hadn't been so good at the rest of his job, I probably would have sacked him.如果他不是在工作的其他方面做得这么好，我可能已经把他解雇了。

4.N-SING Sack is also a noun.开除

5.N-UNCOUNT the plundering of a place by an army or mob, usually involving destruction, slaughter, etc洗劫

6. V to plunder and partially destroy (a place)劫掠(某处)

7. V to tackle and bring down a quarterback before he has passed the ball四分卫擒抱[American football]

这里取的意思是解雇。

*kick out  v.remove from a position or office(解雇、开除）

*hold in check约束、制约、控制

试译：究竟特朗普能惹多大的麻烦，在本周有了轰动性的展现，他开除了詹姆斯·科米,科米是FBI史上仅有的第二位被革职的局长。科米犯了错误，特朗普也行使了他的权利。但是总统的成功仅仅是将人们的注意力吸引到对他和俄罗斯关系的质疑上以及他对约束他这位未来国王的规则的不屑一顾。

Justas dangerous, andno less important to ordinary Americans,however, is Mr Trump’s plan for the economy. It treats orthodoxy, accuracy and consistency as if they were simply to be negotiated away in a series of earth-shattering deals. Although Trumponomics could stoke a mini-boom, it, too, poses dangers to America and the world.

本段承接上一段的“but”之后的内容，引出了对特朗普经济计划的担忧，认为特朗普的经济计划对于普通人来说很重要，但也很危险。因为特朗普可以在交易过程中放弃一些准则：正统、精确、一致。尽管他的经济举措也许催生小小的繁荣，但可能对美国和全球经济带来危险。

词汇：

* no less important同样重要

* orthodoxy  noun正统

* be negotiatedaway通过谈判放弃

* earth-shatteringearth-shattering (also earthshaking)

Adj.Something that is earth-shattering is very surprising or shocking.惊天动地的

试译：特朗普的经济计划对普通美国人而言，重要却又危险。正统性、精确性和一致性都可以轻而易举地在一系列重大的交易中通过谈判放弃。尽管特朗普经济学可以引发小小的繁荣，但会给美国和世界带来危害。

Trumponomics 101

特朗普经济学101

In an interview with this newspaper, the president gave his most extensive description yet of what he wants for the economy (seearticle).His target is to ensure that more Americans have well-paid jobs by raising the growth rate.His advisers talk of 3% GDP growth—a full percentage point higher than what most economists believe is today’s sustainable pace.

本段展现了特朗普的雄心壮志，要保持美国经济的相对高速发展和高质量的就业机会。

试译：接受报纸采访时，总统详细描述了他对经济的期盼。他的目标是通过提高经济增加率，确保更多的美国人有高薪酬的工作。他的顾问谈到要达到3%的GDP增长率，比大多数经济学家公认的当下可持续发展的增速还要高上整整一个百分点。

In Mr Trump’s mind the most important path to better jobs and faster growth is through fairer trade deals.Though he claims he is a free-trader, provided the rules are fair,his outlook is squarely that of an economic nationalist.Trade is fair when trade flows are balanced. Firms should be rewarded for investing at home and punished for investing abroad.

本段对特朗普的经济主张进行了进一步的阐述。特朗普认为获得更好机会和更快发展的重要途径是更公平的贸易。其中提到特朗普虽然主张自由贸易，但是他却秉持民粹主义的立场。作者对他的立场实际上持否定态度。

词汇：

* squarelyadv.直角地；诚实地；正好；干脆地；正当地

* nationalistADJNationalist means connected with a person's great love for their nation. It is often associated with the belief that their nation is better than any other nation, and in this case is often used showing disapproval.民族主义的

试译：在特朗普看来，实现更高薪酬工作和更快经济发展的必由之路是更公平的贸易。尽管他声称自己是一个自由贸易者，规则都是公平的，他的观点却恰恰是经济民族主义者的观点。只有贸易往来平衡时，才有贸易公平可言。对那些在国内投资的公司加以褒奖，同时惩罚那些投资海外的公司。

The second and third strands of Trumponomics, tax cuts and deregulation, will encourage that domestic investment.Lower taxes and fewer rules will fire up entrepreneurs, leading to faster growth and better jobs. This is standard supply-side economics,butto see Trumponomics as a rehash of Republican orthodoxy is a mistake—and not only because its economic nationalism is a departure for a party that has championed free trade.

本段继续阐述特朗普经济的另外两板斧：减税和放松管制。税收的下降和规则的减少的确会让企业家感到振奋，会让经济看起来红火，但与共和党提倡的自由贸易却是背道而驰。

词汇

*strandN-COUNT A strand of something such as hair, wire, or thread is a single thin piece of it. (头发、电线或纱线的)缕、组成部分

*deregulation n. the act of freeing from regulation (especially from governmental regulations)

*fire up ( firing, fired, fires )

1. PHRASAL VERB If you fire up a machine, you switch it on.发动(机器等)

例：Fire up your engine and head out.发动你的引擎，开出去。

2.PHRASAL VERB If you fire someone up, you make them feel very enthusiastic or motivated.激励;鼓舞

* rehashN-COUNT重复;雷同;翻版;老调重弹If you describe something as a rehash, you are criticizing it because it repeats old ideas, facts, or themes, though some things have been changed to make it appear new

*Supply-side economics供给侧经济学

*championN-COUNT支持者；拥护者；捍卫者If you are a champion of a person, a cause, or a principle, you support or defend them.

试译：特朗普经济学的第二和第三主线是减税和放松监管，将会鼓励国内投资。更低的税费、更少的监管将激励企业家，从而推高经济，增加好的就业机会。这是标准的供给侧经济学内容。但是将特朗普经济学视作正统共和党的老调重弹则是一个错误，不仅仅因为特朗普经济学的经济民粹主义倾向背离了共和党作为自由贸易捍卫者的形象。

The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics) is not an economic doctrine at all.It is best seen as a set of proposals put together by businessmen courtiers for their king.Mr Trump has listened to scores of executives,but there are barely any economists in the White House.His approach to the economy is born of a mindsetwhere deals have winners and losers and where canny negotiators confound abstract principles. Call it boardroom capitalism.

本段作者开始对特朗普经济学开始毫不留情面的剖析。首句的意思是特朗普经济学与里根经济学不同，根本不是一个经济学说。而是生意人为了讨好他们的国王而拼凑起来的一套计划。特朗普听取一群CEO的建议，白宫几乎没有正经的经济学家。他秉持着生意人的思维定式。所谓的特朗普经济学可以被称为密室资本主义。

词汇

* doctrine N-VAR信条;主义;学说;（尤指）宗教教义

* scores of许多大量

* canny adj.谨慎的，精明的，狡猾的

* confound  VERB挫败;使混淆，使混乱;诅咒；使困惑;使惊讶If someone or something confounds you, they make you feel surprised or confused, often by showing you that your opinions or expectations of them were wrong.

* boardroom董事会会议室

试译：真正的不同之处在于特朗普经济学（比如，不像里根经济学）根本称不上经济理论。充其量是一些商人宠臣为他们的国王拼凑出的一套计划。特朗普听取了一些企业主管的意见，但白宫几乎没有任何像样的经济学家。他的经济对策也是基于其思维模式，那就是做生意有赢家就有输家，精明的谈判家会扰乱抽象的原则。可以称之为密室资本主义。

That Trumponomics is a business wishlist helps explain why critics on the left have laid into its poor distributional consequences, fiscal indiscipline and potential cronyism.And it makes clear why businessmen and investors have been enthusiastic, seeing it as a shot in the arm for those who take risks and seek profits.Stockmarkets are close to record highs and indices of business confidence have soared.

本段主要分析了两派人看待特朗普经济学的不同态度。左派的批评家诟病分配不均、财政不自律和任人唯亲。另一方面，商人和投资者则欢呼雀跃。同时美国的股市也给出了积极的信号，接近高点，商业信心指数飙升。

词汇

* lay into攻击、抨击

*a shot in the arm一剂兴奋剂

*indiscipline无纪律、纪律涣散

试译：特朗普经济学是一份商业愿望清单，有助于解释为何左派批评家抨击其糟糕的分配制度、缺乏纪律的财政和潜在的任人唯亲。同时它也清楚地解释了为何商人和投资者欢呼雀跃，将其视为那些愿意冒险寻求利润的人的一剂兴奋剂。股市接近了历史高点，商业信息指数飙升。

In the short term that confidence could prove self-fulfilling. America can bully Canada and Mexico into renegotiating NAFTA. For all their sermons about fiscal prudence, Republicans in Congress are unlikely to deny Mr Trump a tax cut. Stimulus and rule-slashing may lead to faster growth. And with inflation still quiescent, the Federal Reserve might not choke that growth with sharply higher interest rates.

本段说明了特朗普经济学短期内可能取得效果。从美国与加拿大、墨西哥重启北美贸易谈判、减税、经济刺激以及美联储的政策几个方面加以分析。

词汇

*Self-fulfilling adj.自我实现、自我应验

*bully vt.仗势欺人、霸凌、恃强凌弱

*NAFTA  North American Free Trade Agreement北美自由贸易协定

*sermon n.布道、说教

* slashing adj.苛刻的；尖锐的v.削减、挥砍

* choke vt.窒息、阻止、扼制

试译：短期看，能提振信心。美国可以恃强凌弱，与加拿大和墨西哥重启北美自由贸易区谈判。由于他们对审慎财政大肆宣传，国会的共和党人不太可能否决特朗普的减税计划。刺激和削减监管规则可能推动经济更快发展。通胀依旧起不来，美联储不太可能突然加息，扼杀经济增长。

Unleashing pent-up energy would be welcome,but Mr Trump’s agenda comes with two dangers.The economic assumptions implicit in it are internally inconsistent. And they are based on a picture of America’s economy that is decades out of date.

词汇

* unleash释放

* pent-up被抑制、被压抑

*implicit adj.不言明的；内含的；无疑问的

试译：释放被抑制的活力自然很受欢迎，但特朗普的议题会带来两大危险。它隐含的经济假设内部互相冲突。这些假设是基于早已过时的美国经济图景之上。

Contrary to the Trump team’s assertions, there is little evidence have been systematically biased against America (seearticle). Instead,America’s trade deficit—Mr Trump’s main gauge of the unfairness of trade deals—is better understood as the gap between how much Americans save and how much they invest(seearticle). The fine print of trade deals is all but irrelevant. Textbooks predict that Mr Trump’s plans to boost domestic investment will probably lead to larger trade deficits, as it did in the Reagan boom of the 1980s. If so, Mr Trump will either need to abandon his measure of fair trade or, more damagingly, try to curb deficits by using protectionist tariffs that will hurt growth and sow mistrust around the world.

本段阐述了特朗普的经济主张，他偏执地认为贸易赤字的根源是不平等的贸易协定，却忽略了贸易赤字填补的是美国人投资与储蓄之间的差额。

词汇

* assertion noun断言

* all but几乎、差一点、

* fine printN-UNCOUNT In a contract or agreement, the fine print is the same as the . (合同、协议的)附属细则

* curb n.抑制；路边；勒马绳vt.控制；勒住

试译：与特朗普团队的推断恰好相反，没有证据显示美国有系统性的偏差。特朗普认为美国的贸易赤字是不公平贸易协定的结果，但对贸易赤字更好的理解应该是美国人投资与储蓄之间的差额。贸易协定与之毫不相干。根据书本知识，我们可以预测特朗普刺激国内投资的计划可能会导致更大的贸易赤字，如同20世纪80年代里根繁荣时代一样。倘若如此，特朗普先生要么得抛弃公平贸易的措施，要么就得依赖保护主义关税遏制赤字发生，而后者的危害性更大，会损害经济增长并在全世界播下不信任的种子。

A deeper problem is that Trumponomics draws on a blinkered view of America’s economy.Mr Trump and his advisers areobsessed with the effect of trade onmanufacturing jobs, even though manufacturing employs only 8.5% of America’s workers and accounts for only 12% of GDP.Service industries barely seem to register.This blinds Trumponomics to today’s biggest economic worry: the turbulence being created by new technologies.Yet technology, not trade, is ravaging American retailing, an industry that employs more people than manufacturing (seearticle).And economic nationalism will speed automation:firms unable to outsource jobs to Mexico will stay competitive by investing in machines at home. Productivity and profits may rise,butthis may not help the less-skilled factory workers who Mr Trump claims are his priority.

本段指出了特朗普经济的另一个问题，他对美国经济的看法过于陈旧，仍停留在工业时代的思维，以制造业为导向，缺乏对数字经济以及服务行业的理解。他的措施也许会事与愿违，加速机器代人的速度，最终损害的是低技术工人的利益。

词汇：

*blinkered  adj.心胸狭隘的；思路狭窄的

*turbulence noun湍流、动荡

试译：更深层次的问题在于特朗普经济学体现了美国经济的狭隘的一面。特朗普和他的顾问们对以贸易创造制造业就业机会有执念，即便制造业只雇佣了8.5％的美国工人，只占国内生产总值的12％。 而服务行业似乎没有登记在册。特朗普经济学忽视了如今最大的经济隐忧，新技术带来的动荡。是技术而非贸易，重创了美国零售业，而该行业的雇工人数已超越了制造业。经济民粹主义也会加速机器换人的过程：公司不能将岗位外包给墨西哥，只能在国内以投资机器的形式保持竞争优势。生产力会提高，利润会上升，但这可能帮不了那些没有技术优势的工人们，而他们是特朗普优先考虑的人群。

The bite behind the bark

这一段的小标题使用了一个英语的谚语，指的是狗吠叫起来比咬起人来更加厉害，引申为“雷声大雨点小”，用来形容特朗普的经济棋局看起来雄心勃勃但可能收效甚微再合适不过了。因为笔者觉得特朗普为美国经济的长期繁荣开错了处方。经济民粹主义能带来短期繁荣，长期来看，将会掩盖真正的问题，激化全球反美情绪，有百害而无一利。

Trumponomics is a poor recipe for long-term prosperity.America will end up more indebted and more unequal. It will neglect the real issues, such as how to retrain hardworking people whose skills are becoming redundant. Worse, when the contradictions become apparent, Mr Trump’s economic nationalism may become fiercer, leading to backlashes in other countries—further stoking anger in America. Even if it produces a short-lived burst of growth, Trumponomics offers no lasting remedy for America’s economic ills. It may yet pave the way for something worse.

词汇

*recipe noun处方

* pave the way铺平了道路，打开了方便之门

试译：

雷声大雨点小

特朗普经济学为美国经济长期繁荣开出了一张糟糕的处方。最终，美国可能因此负债累累，社会也会更不公平。它忽视了真正的问题，如怎样培训那些勤奋但是从技术角度来说过剩的人们。更糟糕的是，当矛盾突出时，特朗普的经济民粹主义可能变得更为激烈，这会导致其他国家的反弹，从而进一步煽动起对美国的愤怒。即使特朗普经济学能带来短暂的经济繁荣，但并不是治愈美国经济顽疾的长效疗法。它有可能为更糟糕的事打开了方便之门。

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