live 简介
为什么你每天上班很努力,却劳碌一生也无法实现财务自由?
为什么同样毕业于一个学校的人,过几年却可以赚的盆满钵满?
我们常听到的一句话:选择比努力更重要。
那么问题就来了,很多人其实并不知道自己面临的选择是什么,所以导致根本无从选择。
通过这次课程,我们一起聊聊概率分布,从而明白为什么有的人很努力却仍然摆脱不了贫穷。
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/036ac5dfff73a73f.png)
内容大纲
- 从肖申克的救赎中我们能学到什么?
- 什么是随机变量?
- 什么是概率分布?
- 概率分布对数据分析、机器学习有什么用?
- 离散概率分布:二项分布、几何分布、泊松分布
- 案例:如何用离散概率分布解决生活中的问题?
- 什么是正态分布商业模式?
- 什么是幂律分布商业模式?
- 什么是边际成本?
- 如何选择你的个人商业模式,才能离财务自由更近?
1、从肖申克的救赎中我们能学到什么?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/de065b01ec04fb00.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/dcaac33da98e6dd6.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/eb36bf7841e01355.png)
1)如果你这次学习的目的只是想理解个人商业模式,那么只需要跳到正态分布和幂律分布章节学习就可以了。
2)如果你想学习后,成为数据分析师,或者机器学习领域的人才。那么你需要认真学习课程中的所有章节。
2、什么是随机变量?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/13197fca21ded612.png)
随机变量是量化随机事件的函数,它将随机事件每一个可能出现的试验结果赋予一个数值。
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/694b055a766bf655.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/553f8286d760ff27.png)
3、什么是概率分布?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/f56b8738d17bf738.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/dd3fd42c74f64de5.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/0a17cf641f182896.png)
4、学习概率分布对你有什么用?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/88d0ebc80a992794.png)
- 在随后学习的两种商业模式也就是两种概率分布,对于我们理解为什么有的人可以摆脱贫穷,以及你个人未来商业模式的选择是非常有帮助的。
- 知道某件事情发生的概率对于我们做出数据分析决策非常有帮助。有时候计算概率很简单,有时候计算概率很复杂,概率分布就是帮助我们解决特定问题下的万能模板。当统计学家开始研究概率分布的时候,他们看到有几种形状反复出现,于是就研究它们的规律。根据这些规律来解决特定条件下的问题,这些规律就是我们后面要讲的概率分布。
- 在机器学习领域,概率分布对于数据的认识有非常重要的作用。不管是有效数据还是噪音数据,如果知道数据集的分布,那么在机器学习算法选择以及建模的过程中会有很大的帮助。
5、如何学习概率分布?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/b912b3db1bcc2556.png)
6、离散概率分布:伯努利分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/5fcdf8c08769ddf9.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/81ffda1a409a3e7d.png)
7、Python实现:伯努利分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/cda25ff635ed15cf.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/a5a195fb40f20338.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/97ea7cbf948367d2.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/c12bfb7b713ab442.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/bc7e64d9100c1a66.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/135e2971461142a2.png)
8、概率分布学习套路是什么?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/4508a858b7da7562.png)
9、练习:如何看懂技术文档?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/2abb42bed75763d2.png)
科学计算包(scipy)各模块使用文档(长按此处可以复制链接):https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/tutorial/index.html
10、离散概率分布:二项分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/c1d07d0c0aba3bfe.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/dfcf48cde9481295.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/3721d8677c446ee8.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/72cfcb1be4d5931a.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/90f0c39f82ed5cc7.png)
11、逆向思维训练
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/92bd17aed2de7039.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/ebe405328e10dfee.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/796127c355d27c59.png)
12、Python实现:二项分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/68124c0ee4c1eaf3.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/06cd23fa997b9934.png)
13、练习:投资股票组合
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/f0e5b331b0a0796f.png)
前面我们课程中涉及到组合的概率,可以参考这里扩展学习: 《如何通俗的解释排列公式和组合公式的含义?》 (长按此处打开链接):https://www.zhihu.com/question/26094736/answer/333686947
14、离散概率分布:几何分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/955c56ce724698a6.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/3ab800835367b5bf.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/17b81a6f0382503f.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/06e9f1ce8640c4ad.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/c5ce8a4b0e207817.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/a82dbaccf7e59e79.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/424971aeb937ed18.png)
15、Python实现:几何分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/4cfd976b816c81ac.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/4cf0f2b260346452.png)
16、练习:向暗恋对象表白
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/35146d9eb1636401.png)
17、离散概率分布:泊松分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/4e42870ddf131437.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/e0051f8dc0df2942.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/efc0492ba7c045d5.png)
18、 Python实现:泊松分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/20044cd720f70c2b.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/459f738fe616e219.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/ac230ad1b28d943c.png)
20、总结:离散概率分布
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/5d62c6195afbadef.png)
21、连续概率分布:正态分布商业模式
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/161824fd5e3ffb7e.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/b18ade88c584819d.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/282a2cf0376fb1b2.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/2aa36a23d76d4318.png)
22、连续概率分布:幂律分布商业模式
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/a98a3b14acbbedd3.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/0a92a214a7ccffa0.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/9afe76971203ac42.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/99252d2556754887.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/8c54713dd3b79df0.png)
23、人类行为为什么会遵循幂律分布?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/73232f34347cb5a4.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/f6582176ee929d96.png)
24、2种商业模式比较
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/d971b8abc844d9cc.png)
25、如何选择你的个人商业模式,才能离财务自由更近?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/b778169631f65ded.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/45910fa4a6908e6a.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/74d3d8a72f74f8b6.png)
26、如何计算正态分布的概率?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/0bfc573e71a8de62.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/0f58093498df6c74.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/c2c7c45ab622c7d3.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/f2c4a1cf579618f3.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/141f8070c9b4e6e2.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/814934c428487fe0.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/7535a66a11e0db0c.png)
27、案例:如何制定销售策略?
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/5c124ac8771c483a.png)
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/02867eca25447036.png)
28、总结
![](https://img.haomeiwen.com/i8639472/a012b5354af0c90d.png)
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