Beginner's Luck vs. Real Tal

作者: doooodles | 来源:发表于2016-08-28 12:22 被阅读47次
    Beginner's Luck vs. Real Talent

    Continue reading the book "The Art of Thinking Clearly", by Rolf Dobelli, on beginner's luck vs. real talent.

    You may have noticed one of these that happened around you:

    1. A friend gambles for the first time, claiming he has no idea on how to gamble, but he keeps winning;

    2. A new comer to the field spots a critical team for the team;

    3. A newbie player beats seasoned players in a row, and is called a black horse.

    It's entirely possible that a beginner who just entered the game is such a genius, that he always seems to do a better job than the players with years of experience.

    However, for most people, it's probably not true -- most of us have to learn, practice to grasp knowledge and skills, and improve overtime. During the early stages, it's very easy to mess things up. As we improve, we do better and get better results.

    Therefore, when you notice someone new, or yourself does things like a genius, do not make your conclusion too fast: it might be beginner's luck, rather than real talent.

    How to tell the differences:

    1. Observe if you are much better than others over a long period of time, or it's just a temporary thing. Unfortunately, you never be 100% sure.

    2. The more people are competing, the more chances are one of them continue striking lucky. It might be you.

    The best way to find out whether it is true is to try to disprove it.

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      网友评论

      • 易木成华:我也要学&在学英语,目前任重道远啊,幸好目前不急用,要不我得愁死
        doooodles:@易木成华 加油!
      • 莺歌cc丶:亲,你是在学习英文中,还是已经学成了。相当于自己的二种语言了,还是说母语是英语。
        doooodles:@莺歌cc丶 哈哈 当然可以,可以当阅读看哦
        莺歌cc丶: @doooodles 原来如此,那就不能能拿着你的句子学习了么
        doooodles:@莺歌cc丶 母语中文,我现在人确实在美国,不过英语也得不断提高才行
      • 独不鸣:Very impressive!😃
        doooodles:@独不鸣 thank you

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