【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

  On the mark

【The Economist】 April, 2019

  翻译练习：青澄青果

(注：本文仅用于英语翻译练习和单词学习之用）

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

Physicists' quest for a "theory of everything" is well known. The equivalent in economics is the hunt for common causes for the rich-world macroeconomic trends of the past decade or so: a shrinking share of the economic pie for workers, disappointing investment and lacklustre productivity growth. These must be reconciled with low interest rate, pockets of technological advance and juicy returns for investors willing to take risks.

众所周知物理学界一直在探寻“万有理论”课题。同样经济学领域一直在究本溯源过去将近十年间发达经济体的宏观经济走势：1. 工薪阶层的利益分配不断缩水；2.投资低迷；3.生产效率增长迟缓。而与之并存却相悖的经济现象是：低利率、投入科研的雄厚财力和铤而走险的投资者所得的丰厚回报。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

The leading economic theory of everything is that competition has weakened as markets have become more concentrated. Unlike firms in competitive markets, monopolies limit production in order to keep prices and profits high. They can therefore be expected to restrain their investment, too. They might still be innovative-with monopoly profits up for grabs, why not be?-but market power usually makes economies less productive overall. And monopolies have many opportunities to take bites out of labour's share of the pie. Their high profits typically flow to investors, not workers. Their high prices eat into the purchasing power of wages. Their bargaining clout may even allow them to suppress pay directly.

经济学的首要理论是一旦形成市场集中，就会削弱市场竞争。垄断寡头，不同于竞争市场的参与者，它们可以为了保持物价居高不下从而获得更多利润而严控产量。所以当然它们会采取减少投资的措施进行调整。为了攫取高额垄断利润，寡头公司可能会保持技术创新，但是却使得整个经济运行的产能下降。而且，寡头公司会利用众多机会攫取本来属于劳动阶层的利益分配。随之，寡头公司的利润并没有流向工人，而主要由投资者攫取。另一方面，居高不下的物价也削弱了工薪阶层的购买力。这些垄断寡头甚至直接在薪酬谈判中利用其强势地位压低工资水平。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

On April 3rd the IMF provided the latest evidence for parts of this theory. In a new study the fund's economists examined the markups over marginal cost- one proxy for market power-charged by over 900,000 firms in 27 countries. They found that markups rose by 8% on average between 2000 and 2015. In findings consistent with earlier analyses by The Economist, the fund concluded that market power has risen notably in America and by a smaller amount in Europe, and largely affected industries other than manufacturing (kept firercely competitive by trade).

4月3日国际货币基金组织为这一理论提供了部分佐证。作为新课题，国际货币基金组织的经济学家们研究了27个国家90多万家公司边际成本加成（衡量市场支配力的指标）。研究数据表明在2000年到2015间，加成平均涨幅为8%。基于这一发现（和早前《经济学人》的分析一致），基金组织认为美国的市场支配力显著提高而欧洲相对不明显，主要影响的产业是非制造业（制造业由于互贸竞争十分激烈）。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

Case closed? Not so fast. Those who doubt that competition has weakened attribute such findings to the rise of "superstar" firms. They argue that economic activity is becoming concentrated in the best firms because of technology, network effects and globalization. This "winner takes the most" pattern could explain rising average markups, if pricey but brilliant products are capturing more market share, or if superstar firms are unusually reliant on spending on intangible assets that is not included as a cost in gross margins. Given the growing importance of intellectual property and brand value to obvious superstars such as Apple and Google, this objection is worth taking seriously.

就此定论？别急。那些对于市场竞争被削弱的理论持怀疑态度的学者，将这一发现归因于崛起的明星公司。他们认为经济活动日趋集中于明星企业主要是由于科技发展、网络效应和全球化。这种“赢家通吃”的模式固然可以解释上升的平均加成，前提条件是价格不菲性能卓越的产品不断占据市场份额，或者明星企业非比寻常地依赖于对无形资产的投入（未计入毛利的成本）。考虑到对于苹果和谷歌这类明星企业而言，其拥有的知识产权和品牌价值越发重要，对此反对意见还需重视。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

The IMF study confirms that in most places a small share of firms are responsible for rising markups, which have soared among the best and are flat among the rest(see chart). The 10% of firms with the highest markups are 50% more profitable than their peers, more than 30% more productive and rely more on intangibles. The fund did not find that rising markups slowed innovation, at least using the (admittedly dubious) proxy of patent registrations.

国际货币基金组织确认大多数情况下，只有部分企业造成了加成上升，尤其在那些明星企业中爬升明显，而在其它公司中相对和缓（见图表）。加成最高的企业中的前10%比同行利润率高50%，生产效率高30%以上且更加依赖于无形资产。至少从企业的专利注册这一指标来看，国际货币基金组织没有观察到上升的加成会减缓创新驱动。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

Yet market power that grows organically is still market power. The fund found evidence of some of the pernicious consequences of less competition. Higher markups are associated with less investment in physical capital - enough to have lopped a percentage point off GDP in the average advanced economy, it estimates. Top firms with higher markups pay a smaller share of the economic value they create to workers. And the fund warns that market power could yet put a brake on innovation, should incumbent firms get too cosy.

虽是有机发展但不可否认市场支配力就是市场支配力。国际货币基金组织已经发现了证据证明竞争被削弱后会导致严重后果，更高的加成必然导致更少的实物资本投资，估计足以使各发达经济体的GDP平均降低一个百分点。那些加成上升最多的公司分配给工人的经济利益相对更小。基金组织警告，如果这些企业的日子过得过于舒服的话，它们会利用市场支配力导致创新停滞。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark

That might happen if regulators are slow to respond to structural shifts in the economy, or too lax in policing mergers that allow incumbents to pick off potential competitors. The fund found that mergers and acquisitions were, on average, followed by significantly higher markups by the firms involved. Economists are sometime accused of having "physics envy"- that is, of coveting the precision of the hard sciences. But if economics has a law worthy of the name, it is that firms prefer to merge than to compete.

如果监管部门对于经济结构性变化反应迟缓，或对于兼并行为疏于管理（这些企业消灭掉潜在竞争对手的手段），创新停滞就会发生。基金组织发现通常购并之后这些参与企业的加成均出现飙升。虽然经济学家通常无法像硬科学领域的学者那样给出精确的定律，但有一个经济规律，即企业更喜欢通过兼并避免竞争，是确凿无疑的。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】- On the mark