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认知偏差会影响我们的决策

认知偏差会影响我们的决策

作者: 苕花吃红薯 | 来源:发表于2017-02-13 13:50 被阅读85次

    The Framing Effect: One of theWorst Cognitive Biases of them All

    本文的要点:

    认知偏差会给我们的决策能力带来麻烦,哪怕高智商也不能幸免。

    框架效应:一个问题,两种在逻辑意义上相似的说法却导致了不同的决策判断。

    认知偏差可以通过训练来消除:扩充工作记忆;学习思维工具(mind ware)

    One of the most compelling andpersistent cognitive biases/ that plague(n.瘟疫,麻烦)our decision making competence(=ability能力,竞争力;excel

    in=be competent to有能力做某事)is the framing effect.最令人信服、长期存在的认知偏差是框架效应,它会弱化我们正确决策的能力。You can experience this cognitive

    bias(认知偏差)first hand/ by considering the following dilemmas.

    Dilemma 1(困境1)

    The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak爆发of an unusual disease, which is predicted to affect

    600 people. You are to imagine/ that you have the authority to choose between

    two treatments治疗方法.

    Treatment A: You save 200 lives.

    Treatment B: There is a 1/3 probability that 600will be saved and a 2/3 probability that no one will be saved.

    600人得了病

    A.救活200个

    B.1/3概率救活600个,2/3概率没人能救活

    Which treatment do you choose?

    Dilemma 2

    The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusualdisease, which is predicted to affect 600 people. You are to imagine that youhave the authority to choose between two treatments.

    Treatment A: 400 people will die.

    Treatment B: There is a 2/3 probability that all 600will die and a 1/3 probability that no one will die.

    Which treatment do you choose?

    同样,600人得病

    A.让400人病死

    B.有2/3的概率,600人都会死,1/3的概率,没有人会死

    If you were like most people–no matter how high your IQ–you were more likely to choose treatment A in Dilemma 1 and treatment B inDilemma 2.

    But this is irrational(不合理的)You’ve been taken in(欺骗,常用被动语态)the Framing Effect Bias. If you double check you can see that the

    numbers and probabilities in the two dilemmas are in fact identical(相同的); they are just verbally framed(口头上的结构)in different ways–Dilemma 1 in terms of(按照)lives saved, and Dilemma 2 in terms of lives lost.

    According to the research, intelligence agents, who may in fact be in positions of authority to make life or death decisions like this, are more taken in by this bias than your average college student(根据研究显示,情报人员(那些可能有像这样生杀大权的人),可能更容易被这种偏见所欺骗,相比于一般的大学生)–more likely to take risks with human lives /when outcomes are framed as losses rather than gains.

    In general, a“framing effect”occurs when factually equivalent descriptions相同的描述of a decision scenario剧本 lead to systematically different decisions depending on how they are phrased. In our example people react differently to a particular choice depending on whether it is described as a loss or as a gain.

    Examples of the Framing EffectsIn Real Life

    Framing effects in our day to day lives have beendemonstrated by many studies.

    We are more likely to enjoy meat labeled 75% lean meat as opposed to(与...截然相反)25% fat.(75%的瘦肉和25%的肥肉)

    93% of PhD students registered early/when the framing was in terms of依照 penalty处罚fee for late registration, with only 67% registering early when the framing was in terms of a discount for earlier registration.

    More people will support an economic policy if theemployment rate is emphasized than when the associated unemployment rates ishighlighted.

    Interestingly, framing effects may be neutralized ina second language!

    Cognitive Biases such as theFraming Effect can be Overcome

    Cognitive biases make us irrational. The benefits ofa high IQ do not extend to coping with these biases. And coping with thesebiases is critical to being intelligent understood more broadly.

    Cognitive biases like the framing effect can be to alarge extent overcome with training.

    Debiasing除偏is a technique/which aims to decrease biases byencouraging us to use our working memory and self-control tooverride

    automatic自动否决,‘pop-up’ ‘System 1’processing (Baumeister & Bushman, 2010, p. 155). Trainingworking memory and increasing its capacity to engage System 2 thinking can helpwith debiasing.//扩充工作记忆

    So can building up useful‘mind ware’. According to

    Professor Keith Stanovich from the University of Toronto who studies intelligence and rationality,‘mind ware(思维工具)’is made up of learned cognitive rules and strategies. It includes our ability to keep track of underlying probabilities when dealing with scenarios described in different but equivalent ways, how we go about doing Matrices IQ Tests, and our willingness to consider alternative hypotheses when trying to solve a problem.

    IQ Mind ware’s‘capacity strategy’brain training method is

    based on training working memory capacity so we have the self-control and

    processing power to use System 2 logical thinking when we need to. It is also

    based on using problem-sets and tutorials to build up our‘mind ware’ –our knowledge end strategiesfor better decision-making and problem solving, so we have the know-how tosolve problems and make better decisions.//学习思维工具

    A high IQ alone is not enough to ensure gooddecision-making in real life. It helps, but we also need the self-control to snap us out of(突然摆脱了某种状态,心情)being cognitive misers and apply System 2 thinking whenwe need to.And we need the know-how and

    strategies to know how to apply our analytic minds to the problem at hand.(所以我们拥有了这种(独有的)信息--知道如何(通过了解认知偏差来)解决问题,如何更好做更好的决定)

    词汇

    Cognitive认知上的 (和意识相关的)

    Cognition n认知

    Cognitive bias认知偏差

    cognitive miser。认知上的吝啬鬼,不会花意识,精力去多用逻辑、理性思考。

    Compelling令人信服的,强大的

    Compel = force强制

    Compelling = strong and forceful令人信服的,强大的

    Compelling biases令人信服的,强大到,让你感觉要去做的偏见

    Persistent持久稳固,长期存在的。

    Persistent biases长期存在的偏见

    形容物体:fight a persistent cold和一个长期感冒/疾病做斗争

    形容人 , 固执,坚持不懈。 褒贬都可以.

    褒义词:He's very persistent inlearning English

    贬义词:He called me again and again,so persistent

    Plague /pleɡ/ n瘟疫 麻烦

    Competence(做好事情的)能力,竞争力=ability

    Competent adj有能力胜任的/做事高效的 (efficient and effective)

    简历中,你要写,我非常擅长做某事,不要一直用

    good at, do well inexcel in, excel at

    She excels in managing people

    Competent to do sth

    She's competent to manage people

    Irrational非理性,不合理的

    intelligence agent情报人员,特工

    Intelligence智力,情报

    snap us out of being cognitive misers

    Snap sb out of = stop being in (condition, mood)突然摆脱了某种状态,心情。

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