中国方便面的销量为何不再沸腾？

Why are China instant noodle sales going off the boil[1]?

中国方便面的销量为何不再沸腾？

[1]go off the boil：to lose interest or become less urgent 失去兴趣；不再紧迫

They were really excited about the project, but now they seem to have gone off the boil.

当初他们对这个项目非常感兴趣，可现在似乎已经没有激情了。

Easy to make and cheap to buy, instant noodles have long been China's ultimate convenience food.

长久以来，容易做价格又便宜的方便面（又称即食面或泡面）都是中国的最佳即食食品。

Be it a snack for students, a meal on the train, or just the go-to[2] choice for hungry workers, more than 46.2 billion packets were sold in China in 2013.

不管是给学生当零食、在火车上当简餐，还是作为加班人士的充饥之选，2013年方便面在中国内地和香港卖出了462亿包。

[2]go-to：used to describe the best person to deal with a particular problem or do a particular thing, or the best place to get a particular thing or service （为解决某个问题或做某件事情的）必找的（人）；（为找到某件物品或服务的）必去的（地方）

He was the company's go-to guy for new ideas.

他是公司里新点子的必找之人。

But by 2016 those sales hadtumbled[3]to 38.5 billion packets, according to the World Instant Noodle Association. That's a drop of almost 17%.

根据世界方便面协会的数据，2016年，中国内地和香港地区的方便面销量已跌至385亿包，跌幅近17%。

[3]tumble：to fall a lot in value in a short time （价值）暴跌，骤降

Share prices tumbled yesterday.

昨天股票大跌。

Given most other instant noodle markets have remained fairly steady over the past few years (with the notable exception ofIndia where the recall ofMaggi noodles led to a sharp drop in 2015) - it is an unusual pattern.

这一案例非同寻常，因为全球其他方便面市场在过去几年均保持稳定（除印度2015年召回马吉面条导致销量大幅下降外）。

So what's going on? Well here are some theories - which suggest instant noodles could be, in many ways, a great indicator of how China is changing.

这是怎么回事？有观点认为，方便面销量的下降，可能标志着中国社会诸多方面正在发生的深刻变化。

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Aspiration: Customers want better food

渴望：消费者想要更好的食物

The recipe for instant noodles is fairly straight forward: Just add boiling water, a sachet[3] of sauce, and some small packets of dehydrated vegetables and meat.

方便面的制作方法“直截了当”：只需加入开水，一袋调料，以及一些细碎的脱水蔬菜和肉。

[3]sachet：a small closed container made of paper or plastic, containing a small amount of something, usually enough for only one occasion （通常内容物仅够用一次的）小袋，小包

a sachet of sugar

一小袋免费洗发水

As appetising as that sounds, one factor in theslump could well be that some Chinese consumers are upping their expectations in the dining department.

尽管听起来很开胃，但销量下滑的一个因素很可能是，中国消费者对饮食的期望正在不断提高。

"The decline of instant noodle sales shows a shift in China's consumption patterns," said Zhao Ping of the Academy of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade," he told the China Daily."Consumers are more interested in life quality than just filling their bellies these days."

“方便面销量下降表明中国的消费模式发生了转变”，中国国际贸易促进委员会的赵平说，“如今，与填饱肚子比，消费者更感兴趣的是如何提高生活质量。”

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Population shift: Rural workers are going home

人口迁移：农民工正在返乡

One of the big consumers of instant noodles - the theory goes - are migrant workers.

方便面的一大消费群体是外来民工。

They are away from home, often living in cramped[4] conditions with limited cooking facilities, and keen to save as much money as they can to send back to their families.

农民工离开了家乡，常常居住在煮食条件有限的狭小空间里，并且希望多省点钱寄回老家。

[4]cramped：not having enough space or time 狭小的；狭窄的；受空间（或时间）限制的

a cramped room/house

狭小的房间／房子

Until 2014 the number of rural Chinese who had moved to cities had been on the rise.

直到2014年，进城就业的中国农村人口数量一直呈上升态势。

But that trend has now reversed for two consecutive years (and is expected to keep doing so when the 2017 data comes out). Last year 1.7 million fewer migrant workers lived in cities than in 2015, which quite plausibly[5] could be eating into noodle sales.

但最近两年，这一趋势已连续出现逆转。2016年，在城市生活的农民工数量比2015年减少了170万。预计最新出炉的数据将显示，这一趋势在2017年得以延续。城市中农村务工人口的减少，很可能会侵蚀方便面的销量。

[5]plausibly(adv.)

plausible (adj.)：seeming likely to be true, or able to be believed 貌似真实（或可信）的

a plausible explanation/excuse

貌似有理的解释／借口

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Travel: Infrastructure improving, habits changing

旅游：出行方式升级了，习惯也在改变

Travelling in China 20 years ago, I filled my stomach (and time) by eating pot after pot of instant noodles during cross-country train journeys, which sometimes lasted three days or more.

20年前在中国旅行时，横跨全国的火车行程往往需要三天甚至更长时间。为了填饱肚子和打发时间，我吃了一碗又一碗方便面。

But Chinese trains and stations have improved. Journeys are quicker, and the range of food options are far more international - meaning noodle sales on the railways have fallen.

现在，中国的火车和火车站已经改良了。车速现在更快，食物的选择也比以前国际化得多，这意味着方便面在火车上的销量会下跌。

And then there is the boom in aviation as middle class Chinese people spend billions flying on domestic and international holidays instead of using trains. Almost 500 million domestic and international journeys were taken in 2016, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

与此同时，中等收入群体乘坐飞机的比例上升了，他们在假期里往往不再坐火车。根据中国民航局的数据，2016年国内和国际航班飞行次数总共达到近5亿次。

But given a third of all domestic flights were delayed last year (according to industry body IATA), that is a lot of passengers waiting around, so maybe airports could be a good place to boost noodle sales.

不过，考虑到去年有三分之一的国内航班出现延误（根据行业组织IATA的数据）、旅客被迫等候的状况，机场可能是一个促销方便面的好地方。

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Smartphones and the internet: There's another form of 'quick food'

智能手机与互联网：另一种“即食品”

About 730 million people in China now have access to the internet according to government figures. And about 95% of those are using smartphones to connect. And apps that offer food delivery to your home, office or wherever you happen to be are a real boom industry.

根据政府部门数据，目前中国互联网覆盖人口约为7.3亿。其中95%的人使用智能手机上网。而给用户住宅、办公室或其他任何地方提供上门送餐的APP是一项真正繁荣的产业。

Their menus are undoubtedly more expensive than a pot of instant noodles. But these meals can still be inexpensive. And arguably more tasty.

毫无疑问，他们的菜单往往比一碗方便面贵。但这些食物仍然价格公道，而且更加美味。