The German problem

德国问题

WhyGermany’s current-account surplus is bad forthe world economy

为什么说德国经常项目顺差对世界经济不利?

Thebattle-lines are drawn.When the world’s big tradingnationsconvene thisweek ata G20 summitin Hamburg, thestage is set for a clash between aprotectionist America and afree-trading Germany.

战线已经拉开。这礼拜，当世界的大贸易国在德国汉堡召开G20峰会时，会议的聚焦在了支持贸易保护的美国和支持自由贸易的德国之间的冲突。

President Donald Trump hasalready pulled out of one trade pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and demanded the renegotiation of another, the NorthAmerican Free-Trade Agreement. He is weighing whether toimpose tariffs on steel imports into America, a move thatwould almost certainly provoke retaliation. The threat of atrade war has hung over the Trump presidency since January.

唐纳德·特朗普总统已经退出了跨太平洋关系伙伴协定，并且提出就另一个协定——北美自由贸易协定——重新进行谈判。他在权衡是否要提高钢铁进口的关税，很显然，若实施这一策略必将受到报复。从一月份开始，贸易战争就已经开始威胁到了特朗普的总统宝座。

In contrast, Angela Merkel, Germany’schancellor and thesummit’s host, will bang the drum for free trade. In a thinlyveiled attackon MrTrump, she delivered a speech on June 29thcondemning the forces of protectionism and isolationism. Animminent free-trade deal between Japan and the EuropeanUnion will add substance to her rhetoric (see page 62).

与此相反，这次峰会的主办方，德国总理安吉拉·默克尔将支持自由贸易。她在6月29日发表的演讲中谴责了贸易保护主义和孤立主义，同时也含蓄地抨击了特朗普。日本和欧盟之间即将开展的自由贸易合作将为她的构想提供实际的行动支持。

There is no question who has the better of this argument.Mr Trump’s doctrine that trade must be balanced to be fair iseconomically illiterate. His beliefthat tariffs will level the playing field is naive and dangerous: they would shrinkprosperityfor all. But in one respect, at least, Mr Trump has grasped an inconvenient truth. He has admonished Germany for its tradesurplus, which stood at almost $300bn last year, the world’slargest (China’s hoard was a mere $200bn). His threatened solution—to put a stop to sales of German cars—may be self-defeating, but the fact is that Germany saves too much andspends too little. And the size and persistence of Germany’ssavings hoard makes it an awkward defender offree trade.

他们之间谁的观点更好是毫无疑问的。特朗普先生的信条是：为了公平起见，贸易必须平衡。然而，这是没有经济常识的。他相信关税会提升公平竞争的环境，这种想法也是幼稚而危险的：这些想法会彻底毁了世界繁荣。然而至少在一点上，特朗普先生抓住了不能忽视的真相。他已经就德国的贸易顺差问题告诫德国。德国的贸易顺差大约3000亿美元，是世界上最大的（中国的货币储量也只不过为2000亿美元）。特朗普的威胁性措施——停止德国的汽车销售——也许是自我防卫，但是事实是德国存了太多而花的太少，并且德国存款的规模和持续性使德国成为自由贸易的笨拙的守护者。

Imperfect harmony

不完美的和谐At bottom, a trade surplus is an excess of national saving overdomestic investment. In Germany’s case, this is not the resultof a mercantilist government policy, as some foreigners complain. Nor, as German officials often insist, does it reflect the urgent need foran ageingsociety to save more. The rate ofhousehold saving has been stable, if high, for years; the increase innational saving has come from firms and the government.

本质上来说，贸易顺差是指国家的储蓄高于国家投资。对于德国来说，就像很多外国人抱怨的那样，这并不是政府的重商政策的结果。就像德国政府经常坚持的那样，储蓄更多也不能反映老龄化社会的迫切需求。家庭储蓄率即使很高，多年来也一直保持稳定；国家储蓄的增长主要来源于公司和政府。

Underlying Germany’s surplus is a decades-old accord between business and unions in favour of wage restraint to keepexport industries competitive (see page 18). Such moderationserved Germany’s export-led economy well through its postwar recovery and beyond. It is an instinct that helps explainGermany’s transformation since the late 1990s from Europe’ssickman to today’s muscle-bound champion.

潜在的德国顺差是公司和工会之间签订的几十年的抑制工资增长的协议，这么做是为了保持出口产业竞争力。这种温和的做法通过战后复苏很好地服务了德国出口导向型经济。这是一种本能，有助于解释德国自90年代末以来从欧洲病夫到今天肌肉发达的冠军的转变。