Disney, AT&T and Comcast v Netflix, Amazon and Apple
迪士尼，AT＆T和康卡斯特 对阵 Netflix，亚马逊和苹果
In the entertainment wars, billions of dollars are being torched. Someone will get hurt. 在娱乐大战中，数十亿计的美元正在熊熊燃烧。 混战中总有人会被践踏受伤。[torch:]
WHO MIGHT buy Netflix? Speculation on the matter has risen in line with the streaming giant’s own ascent in the past decade. Apple, with its cash hoard, was a frequently rumoured suitor. Or perhaps Amazon, or big distributors like AT&T or Comcast. At one point, industry sources say, Bob Iger of Disney directly asked Reed Hastings, the boss of Netflix, if he would welcome an offer (Mr Hastings said no).谁会购买Netflix？ 关于此事的猜测随着流媒体巨头Neflix过去十年的上升而甚嚣尘上。 拥有现金储备的苹果公司经常被传言。 或是亚马逊，或像AT＆T或康卡斯特这样的大型内容分发商。 业内消息人士称，迪士尼的Bob Iger直接询问了Netflix的老板Reed Hastings，他是否会欢迎收购（Hastings先生说不）。[cash hoard: stockpile]
Instead all six companies embarked on a series of massive investments that will reshape the landscape of media: who makes entertainment and how people consume it. Since June AT&T, Comcast and Disney have spent $215bn in total on acquisitions of, respectively, Time Warner ($104bn), Sky, a European broadcaster ($40bn), and much of 21st Century Fox ($71bn). Each is preparing new streaming services that will launch by early 2020.相反，所有六家公司都开始进行一系列大规模投资，重塑媒体格局：谁制作娱乐节目以及人们如何消费它。 自6月AT＆T以来，康卡斯特和迪士尼共计花费2150亿美元收购时代华纳（1040亿美元），欧洲广播公司Sky（400亿美元）和21世纪福克斯（710亿美元）。 大家摩拳擦掌都在准备将于2020年初推出的新流媒体服务。
Apple, meanwhile, has poured perhaps $2bn into original shows with some of Hollywood’s most famous directors and stars. On March 25th the company unveiled its new streaming-video service, Apple TV+, that will be available in more than 100 countries later this year. Amazon is thought to be spending more than $5bn a year on content. And Netflix is expected to burn about $15bn this year on original and licensed content in a bid to add to its 139m global subscribers before most of its would-be rivals get fully up and running.与此同时，苹果公司已经与好莱坞最着名的导演和明星一起投入了20亿美元的原创节目。 3月25日，该公司推出了新的流媒体视频服务Apple TV +，该服务将于今年晚些时候在100多个国家推出。 人们认为亚马逊每年在内容上花费超过50亿美元。 预计Netflix今年将为原生和授权内容花掉约150亿美元，以抢先于大部分竞争对手还没全速运行前，锁牢其1.39亿全球用户数。
The firms are chasing the same prize: recurring revenue from video subscriptions by tens of millions of Americans and, potentially, hundreds of millions of international viewers. It is unclear how many of them can thrive at the same time. More than two, analysts reckon, but not all six. There are only so many $10 monthly subscriptions people will pay for. They may opt once again for those bundled with something else, like a mobile service—a business model of which consumers had grown weary in America, where a single distributor sells lots of channels at one price. What forms these reimagined bundles take, and who gets to sell them, will depend on who wins the streaming battles.这些公司正在追逐同样的肥肉：数千万美国人，可能还有数亿国际观众为视频订阅付费。 目前还不清楚其中有多少可以同时茁壮成长。 分析师估计有两个以上，但不是全部六个。 人们每月只愿支付10美元的费用来订阅视频内容服务。他们可能会选择那些与其他产品捆绑在一起的服务，比如移动服务捆绑 。不过内容分发商以一个价格销售大量渠道的方式，已经是一个让 消费者变得疲惫的商业模式。 谁赢得这场流媒体战役，谁就能重新构想采取什么形式来出售。【weary boring】
In this fight, the contenders have adopted different strategies to win over subscribers. AT&T will bundle entertainment with its service, which could help the company overtake Verizon as the largest wireless carrier in America. Comcast will offer an ad-supported streaming service from NBC Universal, which it owns, to its 52m broadband and pay-TV customers (including Sky’s) in America, Britain and elsewhere in Europe (it will also sell subscriptions, but its ambitions seem more modest than the others’). Disney will use its enviable collection of film franchises, including Star Wars and Marvel superheroes, to draw families to Disney+, then steer them to its consumer products and theme parks.在这场斗争中，竞争者采取了不同的策略来赢得订户。 AT＆T将把娱乐与其服务捆绑在一起，这有助于该公司取代Verizon成为美国最大的无线运营商。 康卡斯特将向NBCUniversal提供广告支持的流媒体服务，该公司拥有该公司在美国，英国和欧洲其他地区的5200万宽带和付费电视用户（包括Sky's）（它也将出售订阅，但其野心没有其他人那么大）。 迪士尼将使用其令人羡慕的电影特许经营集合，包括星球大战和漫威超级英雄，将家庭吸引到迪士尼+，然后引导他们到其消费产品和主题公园。
For the tech giants, video is a way to lure customers into their online emporiums. Amazon, with 100m Prime households, is ahead of Apple for now. But Apple TV can push its glitzy new shows to the world’s 1.4bn iDevices. Apple and Amazon have deeper pockets than AT&T, Comcast or Disney, so can afford to pour billions annually into streaming-video for years to come. Their platforms are perfect for selling online services including video.对于技术巨头而言，视频是吸引客户进入其在线商店的一种方式。 拥有1亿Prime家庭的亚马逊目前领先苹果。 但Apple TV可以将其炫目的新节目推向全球14亿iDevices。 苹果和亚马逊拥有比AT＆T，康卡斯特或迪士尼更大更深的钱包，因此每年可以为流媒体视频投入数十亿美元。 他们的平台非常适合销售视频等在线服务。【emporium: bazaar market】[glitzy: fancy]
Then there is Netflix. Its head start puts it in a strong position. Its algorithms work out what viewers want and it has the infrastructure to deliver it to ever more people. A recession or rising interest rates could hurt its ability to borrow—Netflix has more than $10bn in debt and burns through $3bn of cash a year. But its lead is such that it could curtail spending on content and still stay ahead of competitors.然后是Netflix。 它的领先优势使其处于有利地位。 它的算法可以解决观众想要的问题，它有基础设施可以将它传递给更多的人。 经济衰退或利率上升可能会损害其借贷能力 - Netflix的债务超过100亿美元，并且每年的现金损失达30亿美元。 但它的领先优势在于它可以减少对内容的支出，并且仍然领先于竞争对手。
AT&T and Disney face a more complicated challenge. To prosper in streaming, they must undermine lucrative existing businesses. In AT&T’s business unit that houses DirecTV, a satellite provider acquired in 2015 at a cost of $63bn, operating income has fallen by 20% since 2016—in part owing to aggressive marketing of DirecTV Now, a cheaper, loss-making streaming bundle of pay-tv networks. The new streaming service from AT&T (marketed under the Warner Media brand) will exacerbate the decline. Disney, for its part, will forgo profits of about $1bn this year—and $2bn annually from 2020—as it stops licensing films to Netflix and invests in original shows for its streaming platform, Disney+. New investments in Hulu, a general-interest streaming service with 25m subscribers that Disney controls, will also be costly.AT＆T和迪士尼面临着更复杂的挑战。 为了在流媒体方面取得成功，它们必须破坏利润丰厚的现有业务。 In AT＆T的业务部门拥有DirecTV，这是一家2015年以630亿美元收购的卫星供应商，自2016年以来营业收入下降了20％ - 部分归功于DirecTV Now的积极营销，这是一种更便宜，亏损的流媒体工资-TVnetworks。 来自AT＆T的新流媒体服务（以Warner Media品牌销售）将加剧这种下滑趋势。 就其本身而言，迪士尼今年将放弃约10亿美元的利润 - 从2020年起每年减少20亿美元 - 因为它停止向Netflix发行电影并投资其流媒体平台迪士尼+的原创节目。 Hulu是一项总体利益流媒体服务，对迪士尼控制的2500万用户的新投资成本也很高。
Profitless motives
Disney and AT&T are willing to sacrifice near-term profits for two reasons: the vulnerability of their underlying businesses, and hoped-for returns from streaming. With the rise of Netflix, YouTube and other internet distractions, Americans are watching less pay-TV (see chart) and dropping pricey packages which AT&T sells, and which carry Disney’s TV networks. And they go to the cinema less often. That is why Rupert Murdoch wanted to sell much of his Fox empire, and Jeff Bewkes was keen to offload Time Warner. Networks bereft of “must-have” content will face demands from distributors to lower prices. Disney and AT&T viewed Fox and Time Warner studios and entertainment networks, with their libraries of hits, as valuable assets.迪士尼和AT＆T愿意牺牲短期利润，原因有两个：基础业务的脆弱性以及对流媒体回报的期望。 随着Netflix，YouTube和其他互联网内容增加，用户注意力被分散，他们看更少付费电视，并放弃了AT＆T销售的包含迪士尼的电视网络高价套餐。 他们也更少去电影院。 这就是为什么鲁珀特·默多克想出售他的大部分福克斯帝国，杰夫·比克斯热衷于卸下时代华纳。 失去“必备”内容的网络将面临分发商要求降低价格的要求。 迪士尼和AT＆T将福克斯和时代华纳的工作室和娱乐网络以及他们的热门内容库视为宝贵的资产。
For Disney, which oozed popular content even before the Fox deal, the economics of streaming stack up. ESPN, Disney’s sports network, generates more than $2bn annually, according to Kagan, a research group. But its reach is declining. In 2018 the company launched ESPN+, a sports-streaming service. It has picked up 2m subscribers in less than a year (though it is expected to lose money for years).在福克斯交易之前迪斯尼早就分发流行内容，而流媒体对迪士尼的经济性也在不断增加。 据研究组织Kagan称，ESPN是迪士尼的体育网络，每年的收入超过20亿美元。 不过其影响力正在下降。 2018年，该公司推出了体育流媒体服务ESPN +。 它在不到一年的时间里就吸引了200万用户（尽管预计会多年亏损）。【ooze: emit]
The real opportunity should be in Disney+. Disney’s dominance of the box office will count for less as fewer people frequent cinemas. Matthew Ball, a media analyst, argues that even before the acquisition of Fox’s big franchises, such as “Avatar”, Disney’s spectaculars were beginning to crowd each other out. Streaming provides a neat solution. Disney will release films directly online, as with the upcoming live-action version of “Lady and the Tramp”, in addition to TV series from Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios and Pixar Animation. Once licences expire, it will control access to its complete library of hits. Bullish analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, believe Disney+ can break even by 2022 and eventually attract 45m subscribers in America and 115m abroad. At $8-10 per month that would equate to $15bn-19bn in recurring sales; Disney’s revenues last fiscal year totalled $59bn. Disney would also have something new and valuable: direct relationships with its biggest fans.真正的机会应该在迪士尼+。 迪士尼票房的主导地位将减少，因为电影观影减少。 媒体分析师马修•鲍尔（Matthew Ball）认为，即使在收购福克斯的大型特许经营权之前，例如“阿凡达”，迪士尼的观众也开始相互挤占。 流媒体提供了一个简洁的解决方案。 除了来自Lucasfilm，Marvel Studios和Pixar Animation的电视剧之外，迪士尼还将直接在线发布电影，就像即将上映的真人版“Lady and the Tramp”一样。 许可证到期后，它将控制对其完整的内容热库的访问。 银行摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的看涨分析师认为迪士尼+可以在2022年实现收支平衡，并最终吸引美国4500万用户和国外1.15亿用户。 每月8-10美元，相当于150亿-19亿美元的销售额; 迪士尼上一财年的收入总计为590亿美元。 迪士尼也会有一些新的和有价值的东西：与世界上最大的粉丝团建立直接关系。
AT&T and Comcast look more precarious. Warner Media (as Time Warner has been renamed) owns some famous superheroes, like Batman and Wonder Woman, but they are not quite so formidable as Disney’s. AT&T’s early handling of WarnerMedia, where several highly respected executives have resigned, most notably at HBO, its most important asset, has raised concerns about its ability to manage a giant media conglomerate. Comcast, meanwhile, lacks enough popular shows to grab subscribers’ attention. AT＆T和康卡斯特看起来更加危险。 华纳媒体（时代华纳已经更名）拥有一些着名的超级英雄，如蝙蝠侠和神奇女侠，但它们并不像迪士尼那样强大。 AT＆T早期在处理WarnerMedia交易时，几位备受尊敬的高管已经辞职，而对其中最重要的资产HBO的整合，更是引发了人们对其管理一家大型媒体集团的能力的担忧。 与此同时，康卡斯特缺乏足够的流行节目来吸引用户的注意力。【precarious: danger】
It is not clear that owners of infrastructure need to enter the battle to produce content. Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson, a research firm, argues that the streaming boom should benefit owners of distribution pipes. They can offset falling revenue from pay-TV with broadband, which offers higher margins with less capital spending. The cost of programming has ballooned—well above $10m an hour for “Game of Thrones”—as viewers increasingly expect blockbuster quality from their shows. One day, a Hollywood executive predicts, the spending binge will come to a halt. The streaming market, too, will consolidate. It will be “the biggest hangover that Hollywood has ever seen”.目前尚不清楚基础设施的所有者是否需要参与制作内容的战斗。 研究公司MoffettNathanson的克雷格·莫菲特（Craig Moffett）认为，流媒体热潮应该有利于配电管道的所有者。 它们可以抵消宽带付费电视带来的收入下降，宽带可以提供更高的利润和更少的资本支出。 编程成本激增 - “权力的游戏”每小时超过1000万美元 - 观众越来越期待他们的节目大片质量。 有一天，一位好莱坞高管预测，消费狂潮将会停止。 流媒体市场也将巩固。 这将是“好莱坞有史以来最大的宿醉”。【binge: spree】
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