经济学人翻译20170817:Are men more irra

The Economist 翻译系列 NO. 6

原文请见：https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21727095-women-are-often-more-cautious-men-trading-not-china-are-men-more

Women are often more cautious than men in trading.  But not in China

女人通常在交易时更为谨慎。但在中国并不如此

WOULD more women on the trading floor inject a dose of sanity into the world’s financial markets? This question gained prominence after the 2007-08 crisis. As Christine Lagarde, then France’s finance minister and now head of the IMF, quipped, had Lehman Brothers been Lehman Sisters, history would have been different. Many studies support this idea, showing that testosterone-laden men are prone to overconfidence in trading. Women are more cautious.

更多女人在交易场上是否会为世界金融市场注入镇定剂？这个问题在2007-08金融危机后尤为凸显。正如Christine Lagarde，当时的法国财政部长、现在的国际货币基金组织总裁嘲讽的那样：如果雷曼兄弟是雷曼姐妹的话，历史可能会改写。许多研究支持这种想法，证明睾丸素满满的男人倾向于在交易中过分自信。而女人则更为谨慎。

But things may not be so simple. Previous research has mostly used evidence from the West. To test if the conclusions apply universally, Wang Jianxin of China’s Central South University, Daniel Houser of George Mason University and Xu Hui of Beijing Normal University looked at both America and China. And they found that in China’s markets, women can be just as manic as men.

但事情可能没有这么简单。之前的研究大部分使用的是西方的证据。为了检验这个结论是否广泛适用，中国中南大学的王建新，乔治梅森大学的Daniel Houser和北京师范大学的Xu Hui，对比了美国和中国的情况。然后他们发现，在中国市场上，女人和男人一样疯狂。

The economists arranged for 342 students to form experimental markets. They were allocated dividend-paying shares and tokens (in lieu of cash), and given 15 rounds to trade within gender-based groups. Participants could, in theory, calculate fair value of the shares in any given round but few did so.

几位经济学家安排了342个学生建立了一个实验性质的市场。这些学生被分配了可分红的股票和筹码（用以代替现金），在以性别区分的小组内部进行15轮交易。理论上，参与者可在任何一轮时计算股票的合理价值，但实际上几乎没人这么做。

In America, the outcomes matched past experiments. Shares quickly inflated to a bubble in male-only trading groups, before crashing. Women-only groups traded the shares at a discount for much of the time. In China male-only markets were just as unhinged. But so were the female-only markets, going from bubble to bust just like the male-only ones.

在美国，结果与过去的实验想吻合。纯男性交易组内，股价迅速上涨到泡沫程度然后破灭。而纯女性组内，大部分时间股票以打折价交易。而在中国，男性组和美国同样失常。但女性组也和男性组一样，股价从泡沫到破裂。

Critics will object that this was just an experiment. However, there is a long history of using such devices to study investment behaviour. Anecdotally, women have played a part in China’s market manias. In trading halls full of elderly day-traders, white-haired ladies sit alongside wizened men. Over the past two years women have also been on the front lines of protests after a series of online investment schemes collapsed.

批评家们会抗议这只是一个实验。但是，使用这种机制来研究投资行为有悠久历史。按常识来判断，中国市场的狂热女人也有份。交易大厅里满是上了年纪的日内交易者，白头发的大妈们坐在满脸皱纹的大爷边上。过去两年中，在一系列网上投资计划垮台之后，女人们也冲在了抗议的前线。

Why China’s women might be as bold—and reckless—as men is open to debate. Other research highlights Communist Party policies promoting equality. But in practice women in China are woefully underrepresented in the financial sector. Only when that changes will it be possible to judge if China truly has gender parity in irrational exuberance.

为什么中国的女人们可能会跟男人一样勇敢和鲁莽，这点还没有定论。其它调查强调共产党的政策鼓励男女平等。但在实践中，中国金融领域的女人严重不足。只有当这点改变时，才有可能判断，中国是否真的在非理性冲动这点上男女平等。

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