【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】 - 制造业之2019

【经济学人】 April, 2019

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(注：本文仅用于英语翻译练习和单词学习之用）

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】 - 制造业之2019

Pessimism about the world economy has grown throughout 2019. Disappointing data, tumbling bond yields, and political crisis in Britain have all played a part. The only bright spot has been mostly buoyant stock-markets. On April 9th the IMF reported a downgrade to its forecast for global growth this year, which in January stood at 3.5 %. But there has so far been only a deceleration, not a downturn, because economic weakness has been contained mostly to manufacturing, rather than afflicting the service sector. And a manufacturing rebound might soon lift the global mood.

2019年对于全球经济的走势都弥漫着悲观主义情绪。令人失望的统计数据、不断下跌的债券收益和英国政治危机都和这种悲观主义情绪都脱不了干系。唯一的亮点是强劲的各地股票市场。4月9日国际货币基金组织宣布其对于全球经济展望从一月份3.5%的增长预期予以调低处理。不过由于疲软仅局限于制造业而未波及服务行业，目前经济发展只是呈现出了减速趋势还未显现衰退趋势。制造业也可能很快反弹从而提振全球对于经济发展的信心。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】 - 制造业之2019

Manufacturing's woes can be blamed primarily on falling global trade growth. That is down partly to the trade war, and partly to Chinese policymakers' attempts to reduce leverage, which slowed domestic growth late last year, curtailing demand for imports. The pain has been felt most in Europe, which is more exposed than America to emerging markets. It has been particularly acute in Germany. On April 1st a survey of German manufacturers, a preview of which buffeted bond markets in March, turned out even worse than expected. Industrial production has slowed even more sharply in Germany than in Italy, which is in recession,note economists at Goldman Sachs, a bank. Yet Germany's service sector appears to be growing strongly, as does that of the euro zone as a whole.

制造业之殇主要归因于全球贸易缩减。部分由于贸易摩擦，部分由于随着去杠杆政策的实行使得国内市场需求减弱从而遏制了进口需求。欧洲感受尤甚，因其相较于美国与新兴市场有着更千丝万缕的联系。德国所受的影响最为明显。4月1日对于德国制造商的调查数据表明（该预期已经在3月份重创债券市场）情况甚至比预期还要糟糕。高盛经济学者发现德国制造业的减缓比衰退中的意大利还糟糕。不过德国的服务行业表现和欧洲其他市场一样显示了增长的强劲势头。

【朝花夕拾】-【经济学人】 - 制造业之2019

Service industries are less volatile than manufacturing, make up a bigger slice of rich-world GDP and, by their nature, trade less. That they remain strong largely reflects relatively buoyant labor markets and consumer (German unemployment is only 3.1%). One exception has been Britain, where survey data released on April 1st and 3rd appear to show growth in manufacturing at its strongest in over a year and services shrinking. Both findings are Brexit-related. The British economy is suffering from falling confident, while manufacturing appears so strong only because firms are stockpiling in case Britain soon crashes out of the EU without a deal.

服务行业未像制造业一样显示急剧变化，其在富裕国家的GDP占比较大，而且基于其特性贸易量较少。服务业的强劲势头也表明了劳动力市场和消费品市场的向好（德国的失业率仅仅是3.1%）。唯一的例外是英国市场，据分别于4月1日和4月3日所宣布的调查数据表明过去一年英国的制造业增长最为强劲而服务业却表现缩减，两者都与脱欧有关。英国经济由于市场信心下滑而遭受重创，而只是基于英国无协议脱欧出局导致崩溃的顾虑，制造业经营者囤积式的业务才导致数据显示出行业的强劲表现。

In the 2000s some economists speculated that the growing weight of services in output might help explain the "great moderation"-the fall in economic volatility after the mid-1980s. Although the global financial crisis sent volatility soaring, this summer America's economic expansion, if it continues, will become the longest ever. It will have survived peaks and troughs in manufacturing that in another era might have been more visible in aggregate data.

21世纪初一些经济学者预测服务行业权重的增长可能解释“大缓和”现象，即自上世纪八十年代中期以来经济波动减缓的趋势。虽然全球金融衰退导致了波动加剧，但是美国经济扩张趋势如能持续到本夏季，其将成为史上最长。相较于任何其他时期，制造业峰谷在总体数据中的变化较为显眼，而这轮美国经济扩张如果持续至夏季则意味着它历经了这一起伏的考验。

China has turned to stimulus lately; some economists expect its economy to rebound in the second half of this year. In March its manufacturers reported their strongest month since last summer. That and some strong American data, buoyed markets last week. Even if this proves to be a false dawn, for China to cause a global economic downturn would require its slowdown to become infectiousnot just across borders, but across sectors too.

国内最近也采取了财政刺激政策，经济学家预测其经济会在下半年反弹。3月份其制造业企业报告显示了自去年夏季以来的最佳增长月。这些数据和美国的向好数据上周刺激了市场整体上扬。即使这些数据昙花一现，但如果一国经济状况导致全球经济衰退不仅仅需要其影响是跨国界的，还需要是跨行业传染的，（而这几乎不可能）。

*buoyant- able or tending to keep afloat or rise to the top of a liquid or gas, cheerful and optimistic. - cheerful, cheery, light-hearted, bright, joyful, lively, vital, sparkling, perky, optimistic, confident, hopeful, bullish, positive, --opposite: depressed, pessimistic.

e.g. The auto industry is increasingly buoyant.

*peaks and troughs-