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Barack Obama had tired of Afghanistan. What will his successor do?
巴拉克·奥巴马曾厌倦了阿富汗。他的继任者会做什么？
It maybe America’s longest war, but during his election campaign Donald Trump barely mentioned Afghanistan. When he did, it was somewhat baffling: at one point, he said that America could not pull all its troops out because neighbouring Pakistan had nuclear weapons. As the insurgents of the Taliban prepare for a spring offensive against the American-backed government, there is still no indication of what the new administration’s approach will be.
这可能是美国经历的最长的战争，但在竞选期间唐纳德·特朗普很少提及阿富汗。当他说起时，又有些令人困惑：他一度宣称美国不会撤出所有的军队，因为邻国巴基斯坦拥有核武器。当塔利班的叛乱分子准备对美国支持的政府发动春季攻势之时，还是没有迹象表明新政府将采取什么行动。
For once, Mr Trump’s refrain that Barack Obama left a terrible mess for him to deal with has merit. Mr Obama’s policy on Afghanistan seemed driven more by politics at home than by conditions on the ground. He ordered a timely “surge” in American forces when warned by General Stanley McChrystal in 2009 of imminent “mission failure”. But he then squandered hard-won gains by reducing troop levels faster than his generals advised, hoping to be able to declare victory and leave in time for congressional elections in 2014. When NATO prematurely called time on combat operations at the end of that year, Afghan forces, far from ready to take full responsibility for the country’s security, were left exposed.
这一次，特朗普总统反复宣称巴拉克·奥巴马留给他一个可怕的乱摊子来处理是有价值的。奥巴马对阿富汗的政策似乎更多是由国内政治，而不是战地的实际情况推动的。在2009年，当收到斯坦利·麦克里斯特尔将军的预警，即将“任务失败”时，他命令美国部队适时“增援”。然而，随后他浪费了来之不易的成果，减少部队数量的速度比他的将军们建议的更快。只为能够及时宣布胜利和撤离，给2014年的国会选举造势。当北约在那年年底过早地宣布战斗行动时间到来时，阿富汗部队还远未就绪，去承担维护该国安全的全部责任，并处于孤军作战的情势之下。
Mr Obama further encouraged a resurgent Taliban by suggesting he wanted to end even America’s modest training mission before leaving office. However, faced with the possibility that the government might fall to the insurgency if he exercised this so-called “zero option”, Mr Obama relented, doing just enough to preserve what has become a miserable stalemate.
离任前，奥巴马总统表示他想结束美国的培训行动，这进一步纵容了塔利班的复活。如果执行这个所谓的“零选项”计划，政府有陷入内乱的可能性，所以奥巴马采用了温和的方案，但也只够维持一个悲惨僵局的现实。
An international force of 12,600 remains in Afghanistan, of whom 8,400 are Americans. About 2,500 are special forces who carry out raids against terrorist targets, such as al-Qaeda and the local branch of Islamic State, but not the Taliban. The rest are there to “train, advise and assist” the Afghan security forces, including the police. Under rules of engagement first laid down by Mr Obama and only slightly relaxed last summer, the NATO troops could only come to the aid of their Afghan allies when they were facing a defeat that might have “strategic” implications—a criterion that commanders in the field had difficulty interpreting.
国际部队有12,600人驻扎在阿富汗，其中8,400人来自美国。 约2,500人是特种部队，他们执行打击恐怖目标的任务，比如基地组织（Al-Qaeda）和IS的地方分支机构，而不是对塔利班进行袭击。 其余人员留在那里目的则是“训练，指导和帮助”阿富汗安全部队，包括警察。 奥巴马总统制定了交战规则，这个规则在去年夏天时稍稍放宽了些。在此规则下，北约部队只有在阿富汗盟军面临具有“战略”影响的失败时才能支援他们 - 这样的标准战地指挥官很难解释清楚。
Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an author of many critical reports on the conduct of the war, says that too little of the training takes place with forward combat units, where it would be of most use. Close air support, which was vital for NATO, has dwindled. In 2011 nearly 35,000 combat sorties were flown; in the first ten months of 2016 that had fallen to 4,500. The number of missions to evacuate casualties has dropped from nearly 3,000 in 2011 to none.
战略和国际研究中心的安东尼·科德斯曼（Anthony Cordesman）以作者身份写了很多关于战争行为的批评报告。他说，前线作战部队接受的训练太少，那里本来应该是训练最多的地方。对北约至关重要的抵近空中支援也已经减少。 2011年，飞机出击了近35,000架次;而在2016年的头十个月出击已经降至4,500架次。撤离伤员的行动数量已从2011年的近3 000次降为零。
The consequences have been dire. In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee in February, the American commander in Afghanistan, General John Nicholson, warned that current American troop levels are inadequate to prevent the Taliban from continuing to retake territory, especially in Helmand province, the heartland of the insurgency, and Kunduz. SIGAR (the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, a post created by Congress) reckons that the proportion of the country under uncontested government control fell during the 12 months to November 2016 from 72% to 57%, although about 64% of Afghans still live in uncontested areas and only 8% in areas fully under the Taliban’s control (see map).
后果很严重。在2月份提交给参议院军事委员会的证词中，驻阿富汗美国指挥官，将军约翰·尼科尔森（John Nicholson）警告说，目前的美军数量不足以阻止塔利班继续恢复领土，特别是位于叛乱中心地带的赫尔曼德省（Helmand）和昆都士（Kunduz）。 SIGAR（阿富汗重建特别监察长-由国会设立的职位）认为，截止到2016年11月的12个月内，由无可争议的政府控制的国土比例从72％下降到了57％，即便约64％的阿富汗人仍然生活在无争议区域内；只有8％的区域完全落入塔利班的控制之下。
The 360,000-strong Afghan security forces are taking a lot of casualties, says General Nicholson. In the year to November, 6,785 were killed and another 11,777 wounded. In 2015 and 2016 combined, 19 Americans were killed in action.
尼科尔森将军说，拥有超过36万人的阿富汗安全部队正在承受大量的伤亡。这一年到11月份，已有6,785人阵亡，另有11,777人受伤。 2015和2016两年间，19名美国人在行动中丧生。
Just to maintain the current deadlock, General Nicholson has asked for “a few thousand” more troops, some of whom he would expect to come from other members of NATO. A further loosening of the rules of engagement and an increase in the air-power available to him would also help. John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told General Nicholson that instead of playing “not to lose”, America needed a strategy to defeat the Taliban.
仅仅为了维持目前的僵局，尼科尔森将军就要求派遣“几千人”的增援部队。他希望其中一部分来自北约的其他成员国。同时，要求进一步放松交战规则，增加可用的空中打击力量也将对他有所帮助。参议院军事委员会主席约翰·麦凯恩告诉尼科尔森将军，美国需要得是打败塔利班的战略，而不是“不输”而已。
What will Mr Trump do? In keeping with his mantra of “America first”, he might conclude that Afghanistan is a hopeless case, with its divided, dysfunctional government and a thriving insurgency that still draws support from Pakistan, a supposed American ally. He could leave the bickering regional powers—Pakistan, India, Iran, China and Russia—to sort it out.
特朗普会做什么？为和他的“美国第一”咒语保持一致，他可能得出结论，在充满分歧，功能紊乱的政府治下，加上巴基斯坦支持的此起彼伏的内乱，阿富汗已无希望。巴基斯坦，原本应该是美国的盟友。他本可把这个烂摊子扔给争论不休的地区势力去解决 - 这包括巴基斯坦，印度，伊朗，中国和俄罗斯。
On balance, that seems unlikely. An administration that sees countering “radical Islamic extremism” as its overriding strategic priority would find it hard to justify leaving Afghanistan to its fate. The defence secretary, Jim Mattis, is reviewing plans “for a path forward”. He and the national security adviser, General H.R. McMaster, both served in Afghanistan. Their instinct will be to recommend that Mr Trump set a bolder objective than Mr Obama was willing to endorse and refrain from setting timetables that ignore military reality.
整体而言，这似乎不太可能发生。一个把“激进的伊斯兰极端主义”视为首要战略优先考虑对象的政府很难证明放任阿富汗随波逐流是正当的。 国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯正在审查“为了前进道路”的计划。 他和国家安全顾问H.R. McMaster将军都在阿富汗服过役。 出于本能，他们将建议特朗普设定比奥巴马愿意支持的一个更大胆的目标，同时避免不顾军事现实去设定时间表。
Even then, Mr. Cordesman argues, Mr Trump will also have to pep up Afghanistan’s political leaders. Corruption, as much as insecurity, has stymied international efforts to revive Afghanistan’s sickly economy. Without some progress on that front, no amount of external military support will kill off the insurgency.
即使如此，科德斯曼先生还提出，特朗普必须给阿富汗的政治领导人撑腰打气。 腐败和不安全一样，已经完全阻碍了国际社会为重振阿富汗病态经济所作的努力。 如果没有这方面的进展，即使再多的外部军事支持也无法平息内乱。
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